Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation near the 2% goal—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—and softening labor conditions, with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. The updated dot plot projects a median end-2026 funds rate of 3.4%, signaling one quarter-point cut rather than hikes, aligning with officials like St. Louis Fed President Musalem's April 1 remarks deeming the current stance appropriate amid geopolitical uncertainties. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce hold-or-cut expectations over tightening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$789,917 Vol.
$789,917 Vol.
2026/12/09
はい
$789,917 Vol.
$789,917 Vol.
2026/12/09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation near the 2% goal—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—and softening labor conditions, with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. The updated dot plot projects a median end-2026 funds rate of 3.4%, signaling one quarter-point cut rather than hikes, aligning with officials like St. Louis Fed President Musalem's April 1 remarks deeming the current stance appropriate amid geopolitical uncertainties. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce hold-or-cut expectations over tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$789,917終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation near the 2% goal—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—and softening labor conditions, with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. The updated dot plot projects a median end-2026 funds rate of 3.4%, signaling one quarter-point cut rather than hikes, aligning with officials like St. Louis Fed President Musalem's April 1 remarks deeming the current stance appropriate amid geopolitical uncertainties. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce hold-or-cut expectations over tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$789,917終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation near the 2% goal—February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—and softening labor conditions, with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. The updated dot plot projects a median end-2026 funds rate of 3.4%, signaling one quarter-point cut rather than hikes, aligning with officials like St. Louis Fed President Musalem's April 1 remarks deeming the current stance appropriate amid geopolitical uncertainties. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce hold-or-cut expectations over tightening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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