Market icon
エコノミー·FED

FRBの決定（ 3月～ 6月）

Market icon
エコノミー·FED

FRBの決定（ 3月～ 6月）

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 78%

据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 11%

その他 9.8%

停止–利下げ–停止 <1%

Polymarket

$711,911 Vol.

据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 78%

据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 11%

その他 9.8%

停止–利下げ–停止 <1%

Polymarket

$711,911 Vol.

据え置き・据え置き・据え置き

$18,492 Vol.

78%

据え置き–据え置き–利下げ

$10,005 Vol.

11%

その他

$209,041 Vol.

10%

停止–利下げ–停止

$129,282 Vol.

1%

据え置き–利下げ–利下げ

$345,090 Vol.

1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「FRBの決定（ 3月～ 6月）」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「据え置き・据え置き・据え置き」で78%、次いで「据え置き–据え置き–利下げ」が11%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、78¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に78%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「FRBの決定（ 3月～ 6月）」は$711.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 29, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「FRBの決定（ 3月～ 6月）」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「FRBの決定（ 3月～ 6月）」の現在のフロントランナーは「据え置き・据え置き・据え置き」で78%であり、市場がこの結果に78%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「据え置き–据え置き–利下げ」で11%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「FRBの決定（ 3月～ 6月）」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。