Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日6400億〜6500億 100.0%
6400億ドル未満 <1%
6500億〜6600億 <1%
6600億〜6700億 <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
6400億ドル未満
いいえ
6400億〜6500億
はい
6500億〜6600億
いいえ
6600億〜6700億
いいえ
6700〜6800億
いいえ
6,800億~6,900億ドル
いいえ
6900億〜7000億
いいえ
7000億~7100億
いいえ
7,100億ドル以上
いいえ
6400億〜6500億 100.0%
6400億ドル未満 <1%
6500億〜6600億 <1%
6600億〜6700億 <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
6400億ドル未満
いいえ
6400億〜6500億
はい
6500億〜6600億
いいえ
6600億〜6700億
いいえ
6700〜6800億
いいえ
6,800億~6,900億ドル
いいえ
6900億〜7000億
いいえ
7000億~7100億
いいえ
7,100億ドル以上
いいえ
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
マーケット開始日: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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