Luke Bronin leads trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 13, driven by a late-July Emerson College poll showing him ahead of incumbent John Larson 34%-28% among likely voters, with 27% undecided. Bronin's fundraising edge—$576,000 raised in Q2 2024, over $1 million cash-on-hand—has boosted his visibility and ground game, contrasting Larson's reliance on 25-year incumbency and union endorsements amid criticism of his long tenure. Lower-tier candidates like Ruth Fortune (5.5%) and Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%) trail due to weak polling and limited resources. Late endorsements, debates, or turnout among undecideds could tip this closely contested race.