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選挙·中間選考

CT -01民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
選挙·中間選考

CT -01民主党予備選挙優勝者

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 22%

Ruth Fortune 6%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 22%

Ruth Fortune 6%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin

$0 Vol.

47%

John Larson

$509 Vol.

28%

Ruth Fortune

$486 Vol.

6%

Jillian Gilchrest

$0 Vol.

4%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,355 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Luke Bronin's persistent fundraising edge over incumbent Rep. John Larson—outraising him for multiple quarters, with over $1 million cash on hand—positions the former Hartford mayor as the trader consensus favorite at 46.5% implied probability in the CT-01 Democratic primary, reflecting bets on his ability to deploy ads before the August 11 contest. Larson's 31% share holds steady via incumbency advantages and support from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, bolstered by his campaign's late-January internal poll released March 27 showing a 49-26% lead amid undecideds. Challengers like state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%) and Ruth Fortune (5.5%) trail distant, as the field eyes May's district convention for delegate thresholds securing ballot access without signatures. No TV ads have aired, leaving room for shifts.

Luke Bronin's persistent fundraising edge over incumbent Rep. John Larson—outraising him for multiple quarters, with over $1 million cash on hand—positions the former Hartford mayor as the trader consensus favorite at 46.5% implied probability in the CT-01 Democratic primary, reflecting bets on his ability to deploy ads before the August 11 contest. Larson's 31% share holds steady via incumbency advantages and support from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, bolstered by his campaign's late-January internal poll released March 27 showing a 49-26% lead amid undecideds. Challengers like state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%) and Ruth Fortune (5.5%) trail distant, as the field eyes May's district convention for delegate thresholds securing ballot access without signatures. No TV ads have aired, leaving room for shifts.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Luke Bronin's persistent fundraising edge over incumbent Rep. John Larson—outraising him for multiple quarters, with over $1 million cash on hand—positions the former Hartford mayor as the trader consensus favorite at 46.5% implied probability in the CT-01 Democratic primary, reflecting bets on his ability to deploy ads before the August 11 contest. Larson's 31% share holds steady via incumbency advantages and support from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, bolstered by his campaign's late-January internal poll released March 27 showing a 49-26% lead amid undecideds. Challengers like state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%) and Ruth Fortune (5.5%) trail distant, as the field eyes May's district convention for delegate thresholds securing ballot access without signatures. No TV ads have aired, leaving room for shifts.

Luke Bronin's persistent fundraising edge over incumbent Rep. John Larson—outraising him for multiple quarters, with over $1 million cash on hand—positions the former Hartford mayor as the trader consensus favorite at 46.5% implied probability in the CT-01 Democratic primary, reflecting bets on his ability to deploy ads before the August 11 contest. Larson's 31% share holds steady via incumbency advantages and support from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, bolstered by his campaign's late-January internal poll released March 27 showing a 49-26% lead amid undecideds. Challengers like state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%) and Ruth Fortune (5.5%) trail distant, as the field eyes May's district convention for delegate thresholds securing ballot access without signatures. No TV ads have aired, leaving room for shifts.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「CT -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Luke Bronin」で47%、次いで「John Larson」が28%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、47¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に47%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「CT -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Feb 26, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「CT -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「CT -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「Luke Bronin」で47%であり、市場がこの結果に47%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「John Larson」で28%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「CT -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。