Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the CA-36 House seat, driven by incumbent Ted Lieu's dominant position in this D+21 district, where he secured 68.7% in the 2024 general election and holds over $1 million in cash on hand as of late 2025. Recent candidate filings closed March 6, 2026, confirming weak Republican challengers like Melissa Toomim and Houston Brignano with minimal fundraising, while multiple Democrats trail Lieu far behind. California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 likely advances Lieu against a low-threat opponent in the November 3 general. Upsets could arise from an unforeseen Lieu retirement, a major scandal, or an extreme national Republican midterm wave, though historical safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report underscore formidable barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$0 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the CA-36 House seat, driven by incumbent Ted Lieu's dominant position in this D+21 district, where he secured 68.7% in the 2024 general election and holds over $1 million in cash on hand as of late 2025. Recent candidate filings closed March 6, 2026, confirming weak Republican challengers like Melissa Toomim and Houston Brignano with minimal fundraising, while multiple Democrats trail Lieu far behind. California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 likely advances Lieu against a low-threat opponent in the November 3 general. Upsets could arise from an unforeseen Lieu retirement, a major scandal, or an extreme national Republican midterm wave, though historical safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report underscore formidable barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the CA-36 House seat, driven by incumbent Ted Lieu's dominant position in this D+21 district, where he secured 68.7% in the 2024 general election and holds over $1 million in cash on hand as of late 2025. Recent candidate filings closed March 6, 2026, confirming weak Republican challengers like Melissa Toomim and Houston Brignano with minimal fundraising, while multiple Democrats trail Lieu far behind. California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 likely advances Lieu against a low-threat opponent in the November 3 general. Upsets could arise from an unforeseen Lieu retirement, a major scandal, or an extreme national Republican midterm wave, though historical safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report underscore formidable barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the CA-36 House seat, driven by incumbent Ted Lieu's dominant position in this D+21 district, where he secured 68.7% in the 2024 general election and holds over $1 million in cash on hand as of late 2025. Recent candidate filings closed March 6, 2026, confirming weak Republican challengers like Melissa Toomim and Houston Brignano with minimal fundraising, while multiple Democrats trail Lieu far behind. California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 likely advances Lieu against a low-threat opponent in the November 3 general. Upsets could arise from an unforeseen Lieu retirement, a major scandal, or an extreme national Republican midterm wave, though historical safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report underscore formidable barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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