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icon for CA -08下院選挙の勝者
選挙·11月4日選挙

CA -08下院選挙の勝者

icon for CA -08下院選挙の勝者
選挙·11月4日選挙

CA -08下院選挙の勝者

$11,966 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,966 Vol.

民主党

$5,698 Vol.

93%

共和党

$6,269 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 8th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent John Garamendi's commanding position in the racially diverse northern Bay Area district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Garamendi's fundraising dominance—$1.26 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challengers Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden (both Democrats) and Rudy Recile (Republican), mirroring his 74% landslide in 2024 and 77% primary share. With the June 2 top-two primary poised to advance Garamendi alongside either Recile or another Democrat, historical 65% Harris support underscores the partisan lean. Realistic challenges include a primary upset elevating Recile against a weaker Democrat, Garamendi scandal, or national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout, though these face steep barriers given consistent large margins.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,966
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 8th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent John Garamendi's commanding position in the racially diverse northern Bay Area district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Garamendi's fundraising dominance—$1.26 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challengers Nicolas Carjuzaa and Aaron Rowden (both Democrats) and Rudy Recile (Republican), mirroring his 74% landslide in 2024 and 77% primary share. With the June 2 top-two primary poised to advance Garamendi alongside either Recile or another Democrat, historical 65% Harris support underscores the partisan lean. Realistic challenges include a primary upset elevating Recile against a weaker Democrat, Garamendi scandal, or national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout, though these face steep barriers given consistent large margins.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,966
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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よくある質問

「CA -08下院選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「民主党」で93%、次いで「共和党」が7%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、93¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に93%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「CA -08下院選挙の勝者」は$12Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 28, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「CA -08下院選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「CA -08下院選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「民主党」で93%であり、市場がこの結果に93%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「共和党」で7%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「CA -08下院選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。