Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 58% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, anchored by the central bank's December 11 decision to hold the policy rate at 3.75% while signaling further easing amid persistent disinflation. November CPI printed at 1.9% year-over-year—below target and consensus—coupled with softening labor market data, including rising unemployment to 6.8%, has diminished tightening risks. Overnight index swaps price in additional 75 basis points of cuts through mid-2025, aligning with trader sentiment for steady or lower rates into 2026 barring inflationary shocks. Key catalysts include the January 29 policy meeting and December CPI release on February 4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
音量
$2,242終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,242終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 58% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, anchored by the central bank's December 11 decision to hold the policy rate at 3.75% while signaling further easing amid persistent disinflation. November CPI printed at 1.9% year-over-year—below target and consensus—coupled with softening labor market data, including rising unemployment to 6.8%, has diminished tightening risks. Overnight index swaps price in additional 75 basis points of cuts through mid-2025, aligning with trader sentiment for steady or lower rates into 2026 barring inflationary shocks. Key catalysts include the January 29 policy meeting and December CPI release on February 4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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