Skip to main content
icon for AZ -01下院選挙の勝者
政治·11月4日選挙

AZ -01下院選挙の勝者

icon for AZ -01下院選挙の勝者
政治·11月4日選挙

AZ -01下院選挙の勝者

新規
Polymarket
新規

民主党

$175 Vol.

76%

共和党

$316 Vol.

35%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s withdrawal to run for Arizona governor has positioned the 1st Congressional District as a top Democratic target in the 2026 midterms. Recent polling shows Democratic primary frontrunner Amish Shah holding a commanding lead over rivals ahead of the July 21 primaries, while Republicans face a fragmented field that includes Joseph Chaplik and Jay Feely. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the November 3 general election as a toss-up in this competitive Phoenix suburban district that split its presidential votes in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing captures these dynamics, with the Democratic nominee viewed as better positioned to capitalize on the vacancy and local voter trends.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$490
終了日
2026/11/04
マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s withdrawal to run for Arizona governor has positioned the 1st Congressional District as a top Democratic target in the 2026 midterms. Recent polling shows Democratic primary frontrunner Amish Shah holding a commanding lead over rivals ahead of the July 21 primaries, while Republicans face a fragmented field that includes Joseph Chaplik and Jay Feely. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the November 3 general election as a toss-up in this competitive Phoenix suburban district that split its presidential votes in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing captures these dynamics, with the Democratic nominee viewed as better positioned to capitalize on the vacancy and local voter trends.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$490
終了日
2026/11/04
マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「AZ -01下院選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「民主党」で76%、次いで「共和党」が35%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、76¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に76%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「AZ -01下院選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Dec 16, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「AZ -01下院選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「AZ -01下院選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「民主党」で76%であり、市場がこの結果に76%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「共和党」で35%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「AZ -01下院選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。