The open AZ-01 House seat, vacated by incumbent Republican David Schweikert's October 2025 gubernatorial bid, has shifted to toss-up status per nonpartisan raters, fueling trader consensus with Democrats at 43% implied probability versus Republicans at 35%. State Senator Amish Shah's dominant 3-to-1 lead in a February Highground Democratic primary poll positions him as the likely nominee in this battleground district, where Schweikert narrowly prevailed in 2024 amid close Trump and Lake margins. GOP primary remains crowded and fluid, with recent candidate shifts like former party chair Gina Swoboda's pivot adding uncertainty. July 21 primaries, fundraising edges, and midterm national headwinds under a Republican presidency could tip the balance toward separation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
共和党
35%
民主党
46%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
35%
民主党
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open AZ-01 House seat, vacated by incumbent Republican David Schweikert's October 2025 gubernatorial bid, has shifted to toss-up status per nonpartisan raters, fueling trader consensus with Democrats at 43% implied probability versus Republicans at 35%. State Senator Amish Shah's dominant 3-to-1 lead in a February Highground Democratic primary poll positions him as the likely nominee in this battleground district, where Schweikert narrowly prevailed in 2024 amid close Trump and Lake margins. GOP primary remains crowded and fluid, with recent candidate shifts like former party chair Gina Swoboda's pivot adding uncertainty. July 21 primaries, fundraising edges, and midterm national headwinds under a Republican presidency could tip the balance toward separation.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open AZ-01 House seat, vacated by incumbent Republican David Schweikert's October 2025 gubernatorial bid, has shifted to toss-up status per nonpartisan raters, fueling trader consensus with Democrats at 43% implied probability versus Republicans at 35%. State Senator Amish Shah's dominant 3-to-1 lead in a February Highground Democratic primary poll positions him as the likely nominee in this battleground district, where Schweikert narrowly prevailed in 2024 amid close Trump and Lake margins. GOP primary remains crowded and fluid, with recent candidate shifts like former party chair Gina Swoboda's pivot adding uncertainty. July 21 primaries, fundraising edges, and midterm national headwinds under a Republican presidency could tip the balance toward separation.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open AZ-01 House seat, vacated by incumbent Republican David Schweikert's October 2025 gubernatorial bid, has shifted to toss-up status per nonpartisan raters, fueling trader consensus with Democrats at 43% implied probability versus Republicans at 35%. State Senator Amish Shah's dominant 3-to-1 lead in a February Highground Democratic primary poll positions him as the likely nominee in this battleground district, where Schweikert narrowly prevailed in 2024 amid close Trump and Lake margins. GOP primary remains crowded and fluid, with recent candidate shifts like former party chair Gina Swoboda's pivot adding uncertainty. July 21 primaries, fundraising edges, and midterm national headwinds under a Republican presidency could tip the balance toward separation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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