Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's uncontested primary victory on March 3, alongside Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's nomination without opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring the GOP at 93.5% implied probability in this R+23 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. Crawford's history of dominant wins—73% in 2022 and 2024—combined with substantial fundraising ($525,000 raised) versus Green's minimal resources, underscores the safe hold in northeast Arkansas, including Jonesboro. While Libertarian Steve Parsons appears on the November 3 general election ballot, a shift would require a major Crawford scandal, national Democratic wave, or unprecedented Green momentum amid uncertain midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
94%
民主党
$4,189 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's uncontested primary victory on March 3, alongside Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's nomination without opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring the GOP at 93.5% implied probability in this R+23 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. Crawford's history of dominant wins—73% in 2022 and 2024—combined with substantial fundraising ($525,000 raised) versus Green's minimal resources, underscores the safe hold in northeast Arkansas, including Jonesboro. While Libertarian Steve Parsons appears on the November 3 general election ballot, a shift would require a major Crawford scandal, national Democratic wave, or unprecedented Green momentum amid uncertain midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$4,189終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's uncontested primary victory on March 3, alongside Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's nomination without opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring the GOP at 93.5% implied probability in this R+23 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. Crawford's history of dominant wins—73% in 2022 and 2024—combined with substantial fundraising ($525,000 raised) versus Green's minimal resources, underscores the safe hold in northeast Arkansas, including Jonesboro. While Libertarian Steve Parsons appears on the November 3 general election ballot, a shift would require a major Crawford scandal, national Democratic wave, or unprecedented Green momentum amid uncertain midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,189終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's uncontested primary victory on March 3, alongside Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's nomination without opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring the GOP at 93.5% implied probability in this R+23 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. Crawford's history of dominant wins—73% in 2022 and 2024—combined with substantial fundraising ($525,000 raised) versus Green's minimal resources, underscores the safe hold in northeast Arkansas, including Jonesboro. While Libertarian Steve Parsons appears on the November 3 general election ballot, a shift would require a major Crawford scandal, national Democratic wave, or unprecedented Green momentum amid uncertain midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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