In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race succeeding term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy, trader consensus favors former state Sen. Tom Begich at 24.5% implied probability to lead the top-four primary on August 18, driven by his edge in early first-round polling hypotheticals, legislative experience as ex-Minority Leader, and family name recognition amid ranked-choice voting dynamics. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (11%) leverages administrative continuity, conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (14%) draws grassroots energy, and ex-Attorney General Treg Taylor (10.9%) emphasizes public safety credentials, with Republicans fragmenting the field. Mid-February fundraising revealed ten candidates with six-figure hauls, including self-funders, while Begich toured Southeast Alaska on March 11 pitching education and housing. Consolidation could stem from Dunleavy endorsements, polls, dropouts before the June 1 filing deadline, or the ranked-choice repeal ballot measure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日トム・ベギッチ 25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン 14%
ナンシー・ダールストロム 11%
エドナ・デブリーズ 9.1%
$374,184 Vol.
$374,184 Vol.
トム・ベギッチ
25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン
14%
ナンシー・ダールストロム
11%
エドナ・デブリーズ
8%
トレグ・テイラー
11%
リサ・マーカウスキー
5%
デイビッド・ブロンソン
5%
ジェームズ・パーキン
5%
シェリー・ヒューズ
5%
メアリー・ペルトラ
3%
クリック・ビショップ
2%
マット・ハイララ
1%
アダム・クラム
1%
トム・ベギッチ 25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン 14%
ナンシー・ダールストロム 11%
エドナ・デブリーズ 9.1%
$374,184 Vol.
$374,184 Vol.
トム・ベギッチ
25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン
14%
ナンシー・ダールストロム
11%
エドナ・デブリーズ
8%
トレグ・テイラー
11%
リサ・マーカウスキー
5%
デイビッド・ブロンソン
5%
ジェームズ・パーキン
5%
シェリー・ヒューズ
5%
メアリー・ペルトラ
3%
クリック・ビショップ
2%
マット・ハイララ
1%
アダム・クラム
1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race succeeding term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy, trader consensus favors former state Sen. Tom Begich at 24.5% implied probability to lead the top-four primary on August 18, driven by his edge in early first-round polling hypotheticals, legislative experience as ex-Minority Leader, and family name recognition amid ranked-choice voting dynamics. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (11%) leverages administrative continuity, conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (14%) draws grassroots energy, and ex-Attorney General Treg Taylor (10.9%) emphasizes public safety credentials, with Republicans fragmenting the field. Mid-February fundraising revealed ten candidates with six-figure hauls, including self-funders, while Begich toured Southeast Alaska on March 11 pitching education and housing. Consolidation could stem from Dunleavy endorsements, polls, dropouts before the June 1 filing deadline, or the ranked-choice repeal ballot measure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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