With Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy term-limited, Alaska's open gubernatorial contest heads to a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 followed by ranked-choice voting on November 3, yielding trader consensus clustered around Democrat Tom Begich at 25% and Republicans Treg Taylor and Bernadette Wilson near 21% amid a fragmented 18-candidate field. Begich holds a polling edge from February surveys like Lake Research Partners (38% first-round lead over Wilson's 16%), but GOP enthusiasm surged after Wilson's dominant win in the March 29 Kenai Peninsula District 6 Republican straw poll (17 votes to next-best's 6), signaling potential consolidation. Tight dynamics stem from primary vote-splitting risks and undecideds (23% in recent polls); separation could arise from endorsements, fundraising surges beyond February's six-figure reports for top contenders, candidate dropouts, or fresh polling ahead of the June 1 filing deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日トム・ベギッチ 25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン 15%
エドナ・デブリーズ 9.1%
ナンシー・ダールストロム 9%
$385,178 Vol.
$385,178 Vol.
トム・ベギッチ
25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン
21%
エドナ・デブリーズ
10%
ナンシー・ダールストロム
9%
トレグ・テイラー
17%
リサ・マーカウスキー
5%
ジェームズ・パーキン
5%
シェリー・ヒューズ
4%
デイビッド・ブロンソン
4%
メアリー・ペルトラ
3%
クリック・ビショップ
2%
マット・ハイララ
1%
アダム・クラム
1%
トム・ベギッチ 25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン 15%
エドナ・デブリーズ 9.1%
ナンシー・ダールストロム 9%
$385,178 Vol.
$385,178 Vol.
トム・ベギッチ
25%
バーナデット・ウィルソン
21%
エドナ・デブリーズ
10%
ナンシー・ダールストロム
9%
トレグ・テイラー
17%
リサ・マーカウスキー
5%
ジェームズ・パーキン
5%
シェリー・ヒューズ
4%
デイビッド・ブロンソン
4%
メアリー・ペルトラ
3%
クリック・ビショップ
2%
マット・ハイララ
1%
アダム・クラム
1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy term-limited, Alaska's open gubernatorial contest heads to a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 followed by ranked-choice voting on November 3, yielding trader consensus clustered around Democrat Tom Begich at 25% and Republicans Treg Taylor and Bernadette Wilson near 21% amid a fragmented 18-candidate field. Begich holds a polling edge from February surveys like Lake Research Partners (38% first-round lead over Wilson's 16%), but GOP enthusiasm surged after Wilson's dominant win in the March 29 Kenai Peninsula District 6 Republican straw poll (17 votes to next-best's 6), signaling potential consolidation. Tight dynamics stem from primary vote-splitting risks and undecideds (23% in recent polls); separation could arise from endorsements, fundraising surges beyond February's six-figure reports for top contenders, candidate dropouts, or fresh polling ahead of the June 1 filing deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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