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選挙·票

2026年中間選挙：下院の投票率

Market icon
選挙·票

2026年中間選挙：下院の投票率

1億1500万～1億2000万 17%

1億1000万～1億1500万 14%

1億2000万〜1億2500万 14%

1億2500万〜1億3000万 14%

Polymarket
NEW

1億1500万～1億2000万 17%

1億1000万～1億1500万 14%

1億2000万〜1億2500万 14%

1億2500万〜1億3000万 14%

Polymarket
NEW

8,500万未満

$206 Vol.

9%

8,500万～9,000万

$305 Vol.

10%

9,000万〜9,500万

$688 Vol.

7%

9,500万〜1億

$137 Vol.

9%

1億〜1億500万

$0 Vol.

8%

1億500万〜1億1,000万

$0 Vol.

11%

1億1000万～1億1500万

$0 Vol.

14%

1億1500万～1億2000万

$0 Vol.

17%

1億2000万〜1億2500万

$0 Vol.

14%

1億2500万〜1億3000万

$0 Vol.

14%

1億3,000万以上

$0 Vol.

9%

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent Democratic turnout surges in early 2026 primaries, including North Texas and nationwide contests through mid-March, alongside polls like NBC's showing 74% Democratic enthusiasm versus 61% for Republicans and a +6 generic ballot edge among registered voters, have elevated trader consensus toward 115-120 million total House votes at 17%. This clustering around 110-125 million—near 2022's 108 million baseline—reflects historical midterm turnout rates of 45% among eligible voters amid opposition motivation during a Republican presidency. The race stays tight due to volatile factors like presidential approval, economic data on inflation and immigration, and balanced generic ballot trends. Separation could arise from sustained primary momentum, widening polling averages, or GOP base mobilization ahead of November.

Recent Democratic turnout surges in early 2026 primaries, including North Texas and nationwide contests through mid-March, alongside polls like NBC's showing 74% Democratic enthusiasm versus 61% for Republicans and a +6 generic ballot edge among registered voters, have elevated trader consensus toward 115-120 million total House votes at 17%. This clustering around 110-125 million—near 2022's 108 million baseline—reflects historical midterm turnout rates of 45% among eligible voters amid opposition motivation during a Republican presidency. The race stays tight due to volatile factors like presidential approval, economic data on inflation and immigration, and balanced generic ballot trends. Separation could arise from sustained primary momentum, widening polling averages, or GOP base mobilization ahead of November.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent Democratic turnout surges in early 2026 primaries, including North Texas and nationwide contests through mid-March, alongside polls like NBC's showing 74% Democratic enthusiasm versus 61% for Republicans and a +6 generic ballot edge among registered voters, have elevated trader consensus toward 115-120 million total House votes at 17%. This clustering around 110-125 million—near 2022's 108 million baseline—reflects historical midterm turnout rates of 45% among eligible voters amid opposition motivation during a Republican presidency. The race stays tight due to volatile factors like presidential approval, economic data on inflation and immigration, and balanced generic ballot trends. Separation could arise from sustained primary momentum, widening polling averages, or GOP base mobilization ahead of November.

Recent Democratic turnout surges in early 2026 primaries, including North Texas and nationwide contests through mid-March, alongside polls like NBC's showing 74% Democratic enthusiasm versus 61% for Republicans and a +6 generic ballot edge among registered voters, have elevated trader consensus toward 115-120 million total House votes at 17%. This clustering around 110-125 million—near 2022's 108 million baseline—reflects historical midterm turnout rates of 45% among eligible voters amid opposition motivation during a Republican presidency. The race stays tight due to volatile factors like presidential approval, economic data on inflation and immigration, and balanced generic ballot trends. Separation could arise from sustained primary momentum, widening polling averages, or GOP base mobilization ahead of November.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年中間選挙：下院の投票率」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1億1500万～1億2000万」で17%、次いで「1億1000万～1億1500万」が14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、17¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に17%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「2026年中間選挙：下院の投票率」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Feb 20, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「2026年中間選挙：下院の投票率」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年中間選挙：下院の投票率」の現在のフロントランナーは「1億1500万～1億2000万」で17%であり、市場がこの結果に17%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1億1000万～1億1500万」で14%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年中間選挙：下院の投票率」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。