The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 amid airstrikes marked a rare and controversial regime-change operation early in 2026, drawing widespread international condemnation from world leaders and highlighting risks of diplomatic isolation and legal challenges like narco-terrorism trials. With no subsequent military actions targeting other heads of state—such as in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere—trader consensus prices another capture at just 8.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals, focus on sanctions and alliances over invasions, and high barriers including operational complexity, potential backlash, and absence of imminent hotspots. Upcoming summits or flashpoints could shift odds, but current foreign policy prioritizes economic pressure absent hot conflicts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis vont-ils capturer un autre leader mondial en 2026 ?
Les États-Unis vont-ils capturer un autre leader mondial en 2026 ?
Oui
$46,136 Vol.
$46,136 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$46,136 Vol.
$46,136 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 amid airstrikes marked a rare and controversial regime-change operation early in 2026, drawing widespread international condemnation from world leaders and highlighting risks of diplomatic isolation and legal challenges like narco-terrorism trials. With no subsequent military actions targeting other heads of state—such as in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere—trader consensus prices another capture at just 8.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals, focus on sanctions and alliances over invasions, and high barriers including operational complexity, potential backlash, and absence of imminent hotspots. Upcoming summits or flashpoints could shift odds, but current foreign policy prioritizes economic pressure absent hot conflicts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$46,136Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 amid airstrikes marked a rare and controversial regime-change operation early in 2026, drawing widespread international condemnation from world leaders and highlighting risks of diplomatic isolation and legal challenges like narco-terrorism trials. With no subsequent military actions targeting other heads of state—such as in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere—trader consensus prices another capture at just 8.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals, focus on sanctions and alliances over invasions, and high barriers including operational complexity, potential backlash, and absence of imminent hotspots. Upcoming summits or flashpoints could shift odds, but current foreign policy prioritizes economic pressure absent hot conflicts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$46,136Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 amid airstrikes marked a rare and controversial regime-change operation early in 2026, drawing widespread international condemnation from world leaders and highlighting risks of diplomatic isolation and legal challenges like narco-terrorism trials. With no subsequent military actions targeting other heads of state—such as in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere—trader consensus prices another capture at just 8.5%, reflecting de-escalation signals, focus on sanctions and alliances over invasions, and high barriers including operational complexity, potential backlash, and absence of imminent hotspots. Upcoming summits or flashpoints could shift odds, but current foreign policy prioritizes economic pressure absent hot conflicts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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