The U.S. military's January 3 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro via precision strikes marked a rare direct seizure of a sitting head of state, amid Trump administration escalation against drug cartels and regional adversaries. With no subsequent captures in the three months since—despite ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran since late February, Yemen Houthi operations, and Middle East troop buildups—traders price "No" at 92.5%, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and preference for remote strikes over ground invasions risking leader detentions. Consensus holds absent major escalations like a full Iran regime-change push or new Latin American interventions before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis vont-ils capturer un autre leader mondial en 2026 ?
Les États-Unis vont-ils capturer un autre leader mondial en 2026 ?
Oui
$46,284 Vol.
$46,284 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$46,284 Vol.
$46,284 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. military's January 3 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro via precision strikes marked a rare direct seizure of a sitting head of state, amid Trump administration escalation against drug cartels and regional adversaries. With no subsequent captures in the three months since—despite ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran since late February, Yemen Houthi operations, and Middle East troop buildups—traders price "No" at 92.5%, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and preference for remote strikes over ground invasions risking leader detentions. Consensus holds absent major escalations like a full Iran regime-change push or new Latin American interventions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$46,284Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. military's January 3 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro via precision strikes marked a rare direct seizure of a sitting head of state, amid Trump administration escalation against drug cartels and regional adversaries. With no subsequent captures in the three months since—despite ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran since late February, Yemen Houthi operations, and Middle East troop buildups—traders price "No" at 92.5%, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and preference for remote strikes over ground invasions risking leader detentions. Consensus holds absent major escalations like a full Iran regime-change push or new Latin American interventions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$46,284Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military's January 3 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro via precision strikes marked a rare direct seizure of a sitting head of state, amid Trump administration escalation against drug cartels and regional adversaries. With no subsequent captures in the three months since—despite ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran since late February, Yemen Houthi operations, and Middle East troop buildups—traders price "No" at 92.5%, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and preference for remote strikes over ground invasions risking leader detentions. Consensus holds absent major escalations like a full Iran regime-change push or new Latin American interventions before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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