Eric Ciotti's 100% implied probability on Polymarket reflects his confirmed landslide victory in Nice's recent mayoral election runoff, where he garnered over 60% of the vote as the center-right Les Républicains candidate backed by outgoing mayor Christian Estrosi. Key drivers include Ciotti's strong incumbency-like support from his prior deputy role, effective campaigning on public safety and economic policies resonating with local voters, fragmented left-wing and far-right opposition, and higher turnout among his base. No recounts or legal challenges have materialized post-election, cementing trader consensus. Scenarios that could theoretically shift this include successful court appeals over procedural irregularities or rare post-vote disqualifications, though none appear viable based on official tallies.