Katie Porter commands the strongest trader consensus to advance from California's 2026 gubernatorial primary under the top-two system, with implied probabilities reflecting her lead in early UC Berkeley and Emerson College polls at around 20-25% support among likely voters. Her national profile from congressional campaigns and recent fundraising haul exceeding $2 million outpace rivals like State Superintendent Tony Thurmond and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis. No Republican has gained traction to crack the top two amid Democratic dominance. Recent Kamala Harris signals point away from a run, solidifying the field. Watch January 2025 filing deadlines and spring polls for shifts ahead of the March 3 primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$123,134 Vol.
Eric Swalwell
70%
Steve Hilton
54%
Elaine Culotti
50%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
29%
Matt Mahan
21%
Katie Porter
18%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Sharifah Hardie
7%
Betty Yee
7%
Ché Ahn
6%
Tony Thurmond
6%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Ethan Agarwal
4%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
David Thelen
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
13%
Raji Rab
2%
Sophia Brink
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Ramsey Robinson
2%
Zoltan Istvan
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Brandon Jones
2%
Kyle Langford
1%
Butch Ware
1%
Thunder Parley
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
$123,134 Vol.
Eric Swalwell
70%
Steve Hilton
54%
Elaine Culotti
50%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
29%
Matt Mahan
21%
Katie Porter
18%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Sharifah Hardie
7%
Betty Yee
7%
Ché Ahn
6%
Tony Thurmond
6%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Ethan Agarwal
4%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
David Thelen
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
13%
Raji Rab
2%
Sophia Brink
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Ramsey Robinson
2%
Zoltan Istvan
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Brandon Jones
2%
Kyle Langford
1%
Butch Ware
1%
Thunder Parley
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Marché ouvert : Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Katie Porter commands the strongest trader consensus to advance from California's 2026 gubernatorial primary under the top-two system, with implied probabilities reflecting her lead in early UC Berkeley and Emerson College polls at around 20-25% support among likely voters. Her national profile from congressional campaigns and recent fundraising haul exceeding $2 million outpace rivals like State Superintendent Tony Thurmond and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis. No Republican has gained traction to crack the top two amid Democratic dominance. Recent Kamala Harris signals point away from a run, solidifying the field. Watch January 2025 filing deadlines and spring polls for shifts ahead of the March 3 primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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