Atlanta Fed GDPNow and New York Fed Nowcast models, updated March 23 and 27 respectively at 2.0% and 2.1% annualized for Q1 2026, anchor Polymarket's trader consensus toward modest growth, with the 2.5–3.0% outcome leading at 24.6% implied probability and 3.0–3.5% close behind at 19.0%. Recent downward revisions from February's initial 3.1% nowcast reflect softer consumer spending and exports in preliminary March data, compounded by Q4 2025 GDP slashed to 0.7% in the March 13 second estimate. Yet, March 18 FOMC projections raised 2026 GDP to 2.4%, buoyed by AI-driven capital expenditures amid resilient labor markets. Competitive pricing highlights swing factors like final retail sales and ISM manufacturing prints ahead of the April 30 advance BEA release, where consumer momentum could tip toward higher bins or persistent slowdowns toward lower ones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCroissance du PIB américain au T1 2026 ?
Croissance du PIB américain au T1 2026 ?
2,5–3,0 % 24.6%
3,0–3,5 % 19%
1,0–1,5 % 13.9%
2,0–2,5 % 13.6%
$229,619 Vol.
$229,619 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
<1,0 %
9%
1,0–1,5 %
14%
1,5–2,0 %
8%
2,0–2,5 %
14%
2,5–3,0 %
25%
3,0–3,5 %
19%
≥3,5 %
13%
2,5–3,0 % 24.6%
3,0–3,5 % 19%
1,0–1,5 % 13.9%
2,0–2,5 % 13.6%
$229,619 Vol.
$229,619 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
<1,0 %
$21,546 Vol.
9%
1,0–1,5 %
$5,024 Vol.
14%
1,5–2,0 %
$14,617 Vol.
8%
2,0–2,5 %
$31,522 Vol.
14%
2,5–3,0 %
$13,734 Vol.
25%
3,0–3,5 %
$73,946 Vol.
19%
≥3,5 %
$69,229 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow and New York Fed Nowcast models, updated March 23 and 27 respectively at 2.0% and 2.1% annualized for Q1 2026, anchor Polymarket's trader consensus toward modest growth, with the 2.5–3.0% outcome leading at 24.6% implied probability and 3.0–3.5% close behind at 19.0%. Recent downward revisions from February's initial 3.1% nowcast reflect softer consumer spending and exports in preliminary March data, compounded by Q4 2025 GDP slashed to 0.7% in the March 13 second estimate. Yet, March 18 FOMC projections raised 2026 GDP to 2.4%, buoyed by AI-driven capital expenditures amid resilient labor markets. Competitive pricing highlights swing factors like final retail sales and ISM manufacturing prints ahead of the April 30 advance BEA release, where consumer momentum could tip toward higher bins or persistent slowdowns toward lower ones.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$229,619Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow and New York Fed Nowcast models, updated March 23 and 27 respectively at 2.0% and 2.1% annualized for Q1 2026, anchor Polymarket's trader consensus toward modest growth, with the 2.5–3.0% outcome leading at 24.6% implied probability and 3.0–3.5% close behind at 19.0%. Recent downward revisions from February's initial 3.1% nowcast reflect softer consumer spending and exports in preliminary March data, compounded by Q4 2025 GDP slashed to 0.7% in the March 13 second estimate. Yet, March 18 FOMC projections raised 2026 GDP to 2.4%, buoyed by AI-driven capital expenditures amid resilient labor markets. Competitive pricing highlights swing factors like final retail sales and ISM manufacturing prints ahead of the April 30 advance BEA release, where consumer momentum could tip toward higher bins or persistent slowdowns toward lower ones.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$229,619Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Atlanta Fed GDPNow and New York Fed Nowcast models, updated March 23 and 27 respectively at 2.0% and 2.1% annualized for Q1 2026, anchor Polymarket's trader consensus toward modest growth, with the 2.5–3.0% outcome leading at 24.6% implied probability and 3.0–3.5% close behind at 19.0%. Recent downward revisions from February's initial 3.1% nowcast reflect softer consumer spending and exports in preliminary March data, compounded by Q4 2025 GDP slashed to 0.7% in the March 13 second estimate. Yet, March 18 FOMC projections raised 2026 GDP to 2.4%, buoyed by AI-driven capital expenditures amid resilient labor markets. Competitive pricing highlights swing factors like final retail sales and ISM manufacturing prints ahead of the April 30 advance BEA release, where consumer momentum could tip toward higher bins or persistent slowdowns toward lower ones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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