Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 57% to exit power before 2027, fueled by the November 2024 child pardon scandal that prompted President Katalin Novák's resignation, intensifying domestic protests, opposition no-confidence pushes, and EU rule-of-law sanctions threats amid Fidesz's slimmed parliamentary majority post-2022 elections. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5%, reflecting persistent economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, and sporadic protests challenging Communist Party control despite no near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% odds stem from Gaza war prolongation, stalled hostage-ceasefire talks, and ongoing corruption trials eroding coalition stability. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% anticipates post-budget discontent and winter policy pressures, while authoritarian leaders like Putin and Xi command low probabilities due to entrenched institutional barriers to ouster.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourProchain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ?
Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ?
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie 57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël 5.7%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique 4.7%
$2,755,062 Vol.
$2,755,062 Vol.
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie
57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël
6%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique
5%
Takaichi - Première ministre du Japon
3%
Poutine - Président de la Russie
2%
Petro - Président de la Colombie
1%
Aucun avant 2027
1%
Trump - Président des États-Unis
1%
Zelenskyy - Président de l'Ukraine
1%
Macron - Président de la France
1%
Abbas - Président de la Palestine
1%
Xi - Secrétaire général du PCC
1%
Sánchez - Premier ministre espagnol
1%
Lula da Silva - Président du Brésil
1%
Lecornu - Premier ministre de la France
1%
Newsom - Gouverneur de Californie
1%
Rodríguez - Présidente par intérim du Venezuela
1%
al-Sharaa - Président de la Syrie
1%
Erdoğan - Président de la Turquie
<1%
Milei - Président de l'Argentine
<1%
Albanese - Premier ministre australien
<1%
Merz - Chancelier allemand
<1%
Sheinbaum - Présidente du Mexique
<1%
Kim - Dirigeant suprême de la Corée du Nord
<1%
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie 57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël 5.7%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique 4.7%
$2,755,062 Vol.
$2,755,062 Vol.
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie
57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël
6%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique
5%
Takaichi - Première ministre du Japon
3%
Poutine - Président de la Russie
2%
Petro - Président de la Colombie
1%
Aucun avant 2027
1%
Trump - Président des États-Unis
1%
Zelenskyy - Président de l'Ukraine
1%
Macron - Président de la France
1%
Abbas - Président de la Palestine
1%
Xi - Secrétaire général du PCC
1%
Sánchez - Premier ministre espagnol
1%
Lula da Silva - Président du Brésil
1%
Lecornu - Premier ministre de la France
1%
Newsom - Gouverneur de Californie
1%
Rodríguez - Présidente par intérim du Venezuela
1%
al-Sharaa - Président de la Syrie
1%
Erdoğan - Président de la Turquie
<1%
Milei - Président de l'Argentine
<1%
Albanese - Premier ministre australien
<1%
Merz - Chancelier allemand
<1%
Sheinbaum - Présidente du Mexique
<1%
Kim - Dirigeant suprême de la Corée du Nord
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 57% to exit power before 2027, fueled by the November 2024 child pardon scandal that prompted President Katalin Novák's resignation, intensifying domestic protests, opposition no-confidence pushes, and EU rule-of-law sanctions threats amid Fidesz's slimmed parliamentary majority post-2022 elections. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5%, reflecting persistent economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, and sporadic protests challenging Communist Party control despite no near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% odds stem from Gaza war prolongation, stalled hostage-ceasefire talks, and ongoing corruption trials eroding coalition stability. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% anticipates post-budget discontent and winter policy pressures, while authoritarian leaders like Putin and Xi command low probabilities due to entrenched institutional barriers to ouster.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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