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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Combien de sièges l'IUML remportera-t-elle aux prochaines élections de l'Assemblée législative du Kerala ?

Market icon
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Combien de sièges l'IUML remportera-t-elle aux prochaines élections de l'Assemblée législative du Kerala ?

19–21 41%

16–18 34%

13–15 32%

22+ 14%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

19–21 41%

16–18 34%

13–15 32%

22+ 14%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

<10

$190 Vol.

6%

10–12

$0 Vol.

7%

13–15

$0 Vol.

32%

16–18

$7,016 Vol.

34%

19–21

$15 Vol.

41%

22+

$66 Vol.

14%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for April 9, trader consensus reflects tight opinion polls like the latest CORE-Mathrubhumi survey, showing IUML candidates leading narrowly in key Kozhikode and Malappuram constituencies such as Kuttiady (3% edge) and Mankada (10% lead), but trailing slightly in Kannur's Thiruvambady. Contesting 26 seats primarily in northern districts as UDF allies, IUML benefits from projected sweeps in Malappuram (14-16 seats per Manorama-CVoter) amid minority consolidation, yet faces LDF strongholds in Kannur and BJP challenges in Kasaragod's Manjeshwar. The race stays competitive due to the overall UDF-LDF deadlock (polls: UDF 58-81, LDF 57-71 seats) and razor-thin margins; final campaigning, NRI turnout, or shifts in Muslim voter mobilization could push outcomes toward 19-21 or below 16.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$7,287
Date de fin
9 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for April 9, trader consensus reflects tight opinion polls like the latest CORE-Mathrubhumi survey, showing IUML candidates leading narrowly in key Kozhikode and Malappuram constituencies such as Kuttiady (3% edge) and Mankada (10% lead), but trailing slightly in Kannur's Thiruvambady. Contesting 26 seats primarily in northern districts as UDF allies, IUML benefits from projected sweeps in Malappuram (14-16 seats per Manorama-CVoter) amid minority consolidation, yet faces LDF strongholds in Kannur and BJP challenges in Kasaragod's Manjeshwar. The race stays competitive due to the overall UDF-LDF deadlock (polls: UDF 58-81, LDF 57-71 seats) and razor-thin margins; final campaigning, NRI turnout, or shifts in Muslim voter mobilization could push outcomes toward 19-21 or below 16.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$7,287
Date de fin
9 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

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Questions fréquentes

« Combien de sièges l'IUML remportera-t-elle aux prochaines élections de l'Assemblée législative du Kerala ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 19–21 » à 41%, suivi de « 16–18 » à 34%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 41¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Combien de sièges l'IUML remportera-t-elle aux prochaines élections de l'Assemblée législative du Kerala ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Dec 23, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Combien de sièges l'IUML remportera-t-elle aux prochaines élections de l'Assemblée législative du Kerala ? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de sièges l'IUML remportera-t-elle aux prochaines élections de l'Assemblée législative du Kerala ? » est « 19–21 » à 41%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 16–18 » à 34%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de sièges l'IUML remportera-t-elle aux prochaines élections de l'Assemblée législative du Kerala ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.