Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34.5% implied probability for a 14°C high in Seoul on April 2, reflecting the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast of mostly cloudy skies and light southwest winds capping peak afternoon heating around 14–15°C amid typical early-spring variability. This positioning stems from yesterday's model updates showing lingering cloud cover from a recent weak front, reducing solar insolation compared to March 30's mid-term guidance of 16°C, while 20–30% precipitation odds further temper warmth. High uncertainty across outcomes arises from divergent model ensembles on cloud breaks and air mass stability—persistent overcast favors 12–13°C (35% combined), southerly gusts enable 15–16°C+ (30.4%), and rare clear spells could exceed historical April 2 averages near 15°C. KMA hourly observations today and tomorrow will refine trajectories ahead of official Seoul station resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
14°C 24%
13°C 21%
15°C 19%
12°C 15%
$84,225 Vol.
$84,225 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
8%
12°C
15%
13°C
21%
14°C
24%
15°C
19%
16°C or higher
11%
14°C 24%
13°C 21%
15°C 19%
12°C 15%
$84,225 Vol.
$84,225 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
8%
12°C
15%
13°C
21%
14°C
24%
15°C
19%
16°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34.5% implied probability for a 14°C high in Seoul on April 2, reflecting the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast of mostly cloudy skies and light southwest winds capping peak afternoon heating around 14–15°C amid typical early-spring variability. This positioning stems from yesterday's model updates showing lingering cloud cover from a recent weak front, reducing solar insolation compared to March 30's mid-term guidance of 16°C, while 20–30% precipitation odds further temper warmth. High uncertainty across outcomes arises from divergent model ensembles on cloud breaks and air mass stability—persistent overcast favors 12–13°C (35% combined), southerly gusts enable 15–16°C+ (30.4%), and rare clear spells could exceed historical April 2 averages near 15°C. KMA hourly observations today and tomorrow will refine trajectories ahead of official Seoul station resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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