Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight cluster at 12°C (21.5%), 13°C (21.0%), and 14°C (18.0%) for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range guidance and convergence across recent GFS and ECMWF model runs over the past 48 hours, which shifted cooler from prior warmer outlooks due to an advancing frontal boundary ushering in widespread cloud cover and rising precipitation chances ahead of heavier weekend rains. Key differentiators include subtle variations in modeled solar insolation before overcast thickens, boundary layer temperature profiles, and light southerly winds aiding slight recovery from recent cool mornings near 6–8°C. Typical early April highs hover 16–18°C amid cherry blossom peak, but current synoptic setup caps peaks; monitor KMA midday briefings and evening model ensembles for late adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
12°C 21%
13°C 21%
14°C 19%
16°C or higher 13%
$24,526 Vol.
$24,526 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
6%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
19%
15°C
12%
16°C or higher
13%
12°C 21%
13°C 21%
14°C 19%
16°C or higher 13%
$24,526 Vol.
$24,526 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
6%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
19%
15°C
12%
16°C or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight cluster at 12°C (21.5%), 13°C (21.0%), and 14°C (18.0%) for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range guidance and convergence across recent GFS and ECMWF model runs over the past 48 hours, which shifted cooler from prior warmer outlooks due to an advancing frontal boundary ushering in widespread cloud cover and rising precipitation chances ahead of heavier weekend rains. Key differentiators include subtle variations in modeled solar insolation before overcast thickens, boundary layer temperature profiles, and light southerly winds aiding slight recovery from recent cool mornings near 6–8°C. Typical early April highs hover 16–18°C amid cherry blossom peak, but current synoptic setup caps peaks; monitor KMA midday briefings and evening model ensembles for late adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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