India Meteorological Department (IMD) extended-range forecasts for Uttar Pradesh indicate above-normal maximum temperatures starting early April amid a hotter-than-normal summer outlook, but recent thunderstorms on March 21 cooled Lucknow to 23.5°C—its chilliest March day—introducing uncertainty reflected in tightly clustered market-implied odds around 34–37°C. Trader consensus favors 37°C at 24.5% due to typical pre-monsoon solar heating, low humidity, and urban heat island effects in Lucknow boosting highs from March's mid-30s°C average, while 34°C or below at 21% accounts for lingering cloud cover or northerly winds suppressing peaks. Historical early-April averages hover near 37°C, with model divergences on exact intensity; watch IMD's daily bulletins for April 1–3 updates on thunderstorm risks that could tip outcomes toward lower ranges versus clear-sky escalation to 38°C+.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lucknow on April 3?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 3?
37°C 25%
34°C or below 21%
36°C 20%
38°C 19%
34°C or below
21%
35°C
18%
36°C
20%
37°C
25%
38°C
19%
39°C
17%
40°C
17%
41°C
9%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
1%
37°C 25%
34°C or below 21%
36°C 20%
38°C 19%
34°C or below
21%
35°C
18%
36°C
20%
37°C
25%
38°C
19%
39°C
17%
40°C
17%
41°C
9%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...India Meteorological Department (IMD) extended-range forecasts for Uttar Pradesh indicate above-normal maximum temperatures starting early April amid a hotter-than-normal summer outlook, but recent thunderstorms on March 21 cooled Lucknow to 23.5°C—its chilliest March day—introducing uncertainty reflected in tightly clustered market-implied odds around 34–37°C. Trader consensus favors 37°C at 24.5% due to typical pre-monsoon solar heating, low humidity, and urban heat island effects in Lucknow boosting highs from March's mid-30s°C average, while 34°C or below at 21% accounts for lingering cloud cover or northerly winds suppressing peaks. Historical early-April averages hover near 37°C, with model divergences on exact intensity; watch IMD's daily bulletins for April 1–3 updates on thunderstorm risks that could tip outcomes toward lower ranges versus clear-sky escalation to 38°C+.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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