Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (30.5%) and 12°C (28.5%) as London's highest temperature on March 29, reflecting the latest Met Office and ECMWF model ensembles that project maximums in this narrow range amid persistent low cloud cover and a mild southerly airflow. These closely matched implied probabilities underscore inherent forecast uncertainty at the integer-degree level, driven by variable solar insolation under overcast skies—thicker cloud decks could cap peaks at 11°C, while brief breaks might allow 12°C, as seen in recent 24-hour model runs showing minimal shifts. Climatologically, late March highs average 11-12°C at Heathrow (the official measurement site), with low wind shear limiting convective heating; traders await final hourly guidance updates before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Londres le 29 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Londres le 29 mars ?
11°C 30%
12°C 29%
10°C 17%
13°C 15%
6°C ou moins
1%
7°C
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
6%
10°C
17%
11°C
30%
12°C
29%
13°C
15%
14°C
7%
15°C
2%
16°C ou plus
<1%
11°C 30%
12°C 29%
10°C 17%
13°C 15%
6°C ou moins
1%
7°C
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
6%
10°C
17%
11°C
30%
12°C
29%
13°C
15%
14°C
7%
15°C
2%
16°C ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (30.5%) and 12°C (28.5%) as London's highest temperature on March 29, reflecting the latest Met Office and ECMWF model ensembles that project maximums in this narrow range amid persistent low cloud cover and a mild southerly airflow. These closely matched implied probabilities underscore inherent forecast uncertainty at the integer-degree level, driven by variable solar insolation under overcast skies—thicker cloud decks could cap peaks at 11°C, while brief breaks might allow 12°C, as seen in recent 24-hour model runs showing minimal shifts. Climatologically, late March highs average 11-12°C at Heathrow (the official measurement site), with low wind shear limiting convective heating; traders await final hourly guidance updates before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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