Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C amid a recent warming trend from mid-March cold snaps to late-March highs near 25°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. Leading implied probabilities for 26°C (28%) and 27°C (25%) stem from potential solar heating if hazy sunshine dominates, while 22°C (22.5%) gains traction from frequent spring stratus clouds and 25% rain chances suppressing peaks, per China Meteorological Administration guidance and AccuWeather analogs. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover evolution and weak frontal passages; daily model updates expected by April 1 could sharpen odds as resolution nears via official station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
26°C 28%
22°C 17%
27°C 17%
23°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
9%
22°C
16%
23°C
15%
24°C
17%
25°C
20%
26°C
28%
27°C
22%
28°C
14%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
10%
26°C 28%
22°C 17%
27°C 17%
23°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
$44 Vol.
3%
21°C
$9 Vol.
9%
22°C
$10 Vol.
16%
23°C
$9 Vol.
15%
24°C
$9 Vol.
17%
25°C
$9 Vol.
20%
26°C
$9 Vol.
28%
27°C
$9 Vol.
22%
28°C
$12 Vol.
14%
29°C
$10 Vol.
12%
30°C or higher
$116 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C amid a recent warming trend from mid-March cold snaps to late-March highs near 25°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. Leading implied probabilities for 26°C (28%) and 27°C (25%) stem from potential solar heating if hazy sunshine dominates, while 22°C (22.5%) gains traction from frequent spring stratus clouds and 25% rain chances suppressing peaks, per China Meteorological Administration guidance and AccuWeather analogs. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover evolution and weak frontal passages; daily model updates expected by April 1 could sharpen odds as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volume
$247Date de fin
Apr 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C amid a recent warming trend from mid-March cold snaps to late-March highs near 25°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. Leading implied probabilities for 26°C (28%) and 27°C (25%) stem from potential solar heating if hazy sunshine dominates, while 22°C (22.5%) gains traction from frequent spring stratus clouds and 25% rain chances suppressing peaks, per China Meteorological Administration guidance and AccuWeather analogs. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover evolution and weak frontal passages; daily model updates expected by April 1 could sharpen odds as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$247Date de fin
Apr 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C amid a recent warming trend from mid-March cold snaps to late-March highs near 25°C under persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. Leading implied probabilities for 26°C (28%) and 27°C (25%) stem from potential solar heating if hazy sunshine dominates, while 22°C (22.5%) gains traction from frequent spring stratus clouds and 25% rain chances suppressing peaks, per China Meteorological Administration guidance and AccuWeather analogs. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover evolution and weak frontal passages; daily model updates expected by April 1 could sharpen odds as resolution nears via official station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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