Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 7 between 7°C and 9°C, with 8°C leading at 26% implied probability amid a tight cluster of outcomes. This positioning stems from a recent mild spell pushing early April highs near 10°C, but an approaching cooler air mass and variable cloud cover—evident in the past 48 hours' overcast conditions—limit solar insolation and cap peaks, per Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance. Differentiating factors include frontal boundary timing, southerly wind strength for warm advection, and model spread on low-level instability; historical early April averages of 6-8°C provide baseline context. Watch for ECMWF 00Z updates and hourly observations at Vnukovo Airport, the market's NOAA-sourced resolution point, as uncertainty persists through resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Moscow on April 7?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 7?
8°C 29%
7°C 27%
6°C 19%
9°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 avr. 2026
3°C or below
2%
4°C
17%
5°C
12%
6°C
19%
7°C
26%
8°C
29%
9°C
23%
10°C
16%
11°C
16%
12°C
3%
13°C or higher
2%
8°C 29%
7°C 27%
6°C 19%
9°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 avr. 2026
3°C or below
$269 Vol.
2%
4°C
$35 Vol.
17%
5°C
$319 Vol.
12%
6°C
$50 Vol.
19%
7°C
$36 Vol.
26%
8°C
$51 Vol.
29%
9°C
$8 Vol.
23%
10°C
$181 Vol.
16%
11°C
$15 Vol.
16%
12°C
$1,191 Vol.
3%
13°C or higher
$456 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 7 between 7°C and 9°C, with 8°C leading at 26% implied probability amid a tight cluster of outcomes. This positioning stems from a recent mild spell pushing early April highs near 10°C, but an approaching cooler air mass and variable cloud cover—evident in the past 48 hours' overcast conditions—limit solar insolation and cap peaks, per Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance. Differentiating factors include frontal boundary timing, southerly wind strength for warm advection, and model spread on low-level instability; historical early April averages of 6-8°C provide baseline context. Watch for ECMWF 00Z updates and hourly observations at Vnukovo Airport, the market's NOAA-sourced resolution point, as uncertainty persists through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 3, 2026, 6:22 AM ET
Volume
$2,609Date de fin
7 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 7 between 7°C and 9°C, with 8°C leading at 26% implied probability amid a tight cluster of outcomes. This positioning stems from a recent mild spell pushing early April highs near 10°C, but an approaching cooler air mass and variable cloud cover—evident in the past 48 hours' overcast conditions—limit solar insolation and cap peaks, per Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance. Differentiating factors include frontal boundary timing, southerly wind strength for warm advection, and model spread on low-level instability; historical early April averages of 6-8°C provide baseline context. Watch for ECMWF 00Z updates and hourly observations at Vnukovo Airport, the market's NOAA-sourced resolution point, as uncertainty persists through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,609Date de fin
7 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 7 between 7°C and 9°C, with 8°C leading at 26% implied probability amid a tight cluster of outcomes. This positioning stems from a recent mild spell pushing early April highs near 10°C, but an approaching cooler air mass and variable cloud cover—evident in the past 48 hours' overcast conditions—limit solar insolation and cap peaks, per Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance. Differentiating factors include frontal boundary timing, southerly wind strength for warm advection, and model spread on low-level instability; historical early April averages of 6-8°C provide baseline context. Watch for ECMWF 00Z updates and hourly observations at Vnukovo Airport, the market's NOAA-sourced resolution point, as uncertainty persists through resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes