Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–9°C as the highest temperature in Moscow on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 8–10°C amid a Rosgidromet-observed cooling trend after late-March record highs exceeding 17°C. Upper-air 500 hPa analyses show a deepening trough ushering cooler continental air from the north, suppressing intensification potential while limiting precipitation risks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread from slight model divergences on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, with urban heat island effects and solar insolation potentially tipping outcomes between 7–10°C; historical early-April norms hover near 7°C, but recent warmth adds upside variance. Watch Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates and new model runs through April 4 for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Moscow on April 6?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 6?
10°C 30%
8°C 22%
9°C 21%
7°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
5°C or below
13%
6°C
14%
7°C
18%
8°C
22%
9°C
21%
10°C
18%
11°C
20%
12°C
15%
13°C
16%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
4%
10°C 30%
8°C 22%
9°C 21%
7°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
5°C or below
$10 Vol.
13%
6°C
$5 Vol.
14%
7°C
$38 Vol.
18%
8°C
$15 Vol.
22%
9°C
$27 Vol.
21%
10°C
$22 Vol.
18%
11°C
$15 Vol.
20%
12°C
$5 Vol.
15%
13°C
$5 Vol.
16%
14°C
$46 Vol.
6%
15°C or higher
$116 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–9°C as the highest temperature in Moscow on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 8–10°C amid a Rosgidromet-observed cooling trend after late-March record highs exceeding 17°C. Upper-air 500 hPa analyses show a deepening trough ushering cooler continental air from the north, suppressing intensification potential while limiting precipitation risks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread from slight model divergences on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, with urban heat island effects and solar insolation potentially tipping outcomes between 7–10°C; historical early-April norms hover near 7°C, but recent warmth adds upside variance. Watch Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates and new model runs through April 4 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ET
Volume
$304Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–9°C as the highest temperature in Moscow on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 8–10°C amid a Rosgidromet-observed cooling trend after late-March record highs exceeding 17°C. Upper-air 500 hPa analyses show a deepening trough ushering cooler continental air from the north, suppressing intensification potential while limiting precipitation risks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread from slight model divergences on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, with urban heat island effects and solar insolation potentially tipping outcomes between 7–10°C; historical early-April norms hover near 7°C, but recent warmth adds upside variance. Watch Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates and new model runs through April 4 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$304Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–9°C as the highest temperature in Moscow on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 8–10°C amid a Rosgidromet-observed cooling trend after late-March record highs exceeding 17°C. Upper-air 500 hPa analyses show a deepening trough ushering cooler continental air from the north, suppressing intensification potential while limiting precipitation risks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread from slight model divergences on cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, with urban heat island effects and solar insolation potentially tipping outcomes between 7–10°C; historical early-April norms hover near 7°C, but recent warmth adds upside variance. Watch Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates and new model runs through April 4 for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes