Trader sentiment on Houston's highest temperature April 6 reflects deep uncertainty in National Weather Service forecast models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs stall an approaching cold front northward, enabling warm southerly advection and highs of 84°F or higher under ridging, while others accelerate it for cloudy, showery conditions capping temperatures at 65°F or below. Recent developments include a warm spell peaking near record 86°F earlier this week at Hobby Airport, contrasted by Old Farmer's Almanac spring outlook for above-average April warmth, yet Easter weekend (April 5) frontal timing remains pivotal. Key differentiator: 500 mb height patterns and front speed, with new 00Z model runs and NWS updates expected daily through resolution; historical April highs average 78°F at Intercontinental Airport but vary widely with spring fronts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Houston on April 6?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 6?
65°F or below 23%
70-71°F 22%
68-69°F 17%
72-73°F 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
65°F or below
23%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
22%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
4%
84°F or higher
2%
65°F or below 23%
70-71°F 22%
68-69°F 17%
72-73°F 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
65°F or below
$10 Vol.
23%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
13%
68-69°F
$10 Vol.
17%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
22%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$15 Vol.
12%
76-77°F
$15 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$10 Vol.
4%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
8%
82-83°F
$10 Vol.
4%
84°F or higher
$35 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Houston's highest temperature April 6 reflects deep uncertainty in National Weather Service forecast models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs stall an approaching cold front northward, enabling warm southerly advection and highs of 84°F or higher under ridging, while others accelerate it for cloudy, showery conditions capping temperatures at 65°F or below. Recent developments include a warm spell peaking near record 86°F earlier this week at Hobby Airport, contrasted by Old Farmer's Almanac spring outlook for above-average April warmth, yet Easter weekend (April 5) frontal timing remains pivotal. Key differentiator: 500 mb height patterns and front speed, with new 00Z model runs and NWS updates expected daily through resolution; historical April highs average 78°F at Intercontinental Airport but vary widely with spring fronts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ET
Volume
$115Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Houston's highest temperature April 6 reflects deep uncertainty in National Weather Service forecast models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs stall an approaching cold front northward, enabling warm southerly advection and highs of 84°F or higher under ridging, while others accelerate it for cloudy, showery conditions capping temperatures at 65°F or below. Recent developments include a warm spell peaking near record 86°F earlier this week at Hobby Airport, contrasted by Old Farmer's Almanac spring outlook for above-average April warmth, yet Easter weekend (April 5) frontal timing remains pivotal. Key differentiator: 500 mb height patterns and front speed, with new 00Z model runs and NWS updates expected daily through resolution; historical April highs average 78°F at Intercontinental Airport but vary widely with spring fronts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$115Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Houston's highest temperature April 6 reflects deep uncertainty in National Weather Service forecast models, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs stall an approaching cold front northward, enabling warm southerly advection and highs of 84°F or higher under ridging, while others accelerate it for cloudy, showery conditions capping temperatures at 65°F or below. Recent developments include a warm spell peaking near record 86°F earlier this week at Hobby Airport, contrasted by Old Farmer's Almanac spring outlook for above-average April warmth, yet Easter weekend (April 5) frontal timing remains pivotal. Key differentiator: 500 mb height patterns and front speed, with new 00Z model runs and NWS updates expected daily through resolution; historical April highs average 78°F at Intercontinental Airport but vary widely with spring fronts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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