Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward cooler outcomes for Wuhan's highest temperature on April 2, with 17°C or below leading at 36.5% implied probability amid forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS showing a mean around 19°C but wide spread of 15–25°C due to uncertain timing of a weak cold front and associated cloud cover. Recent China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights below-normal early spring temperatures from lingering northerly airflow and showers, differentiating low-end buckets like 17–19°C from warmer ones, while historical early April highs average 19–21°C with high day-to-day variability. Key factors include soil moisture dampening daytime heating and jet stream positioning; updated model runs expected daily could shift odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Wuhan le 2 avril ?
La température la plus élevée à Wuhan le 2 avril ?
19°C 29%
17°C ou moins 25%
18°C 15%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
17°C ou moins
16%
18°C
15%
19°C
29%
20°C
19%
21°C
19%
22°C
23%
23°C
12%
24°C
21%
25°C
9%
26°C
16%
27°C ou plus
24%
19°C 29%
17°C ou moins 25%
18°C 15%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
17°C ou moins
$20 Vol.
16%
18°C
$7 Vol.
15%
19°C
$21 Vol.
29%
20°C
$13 Vol.
19%
21°C
$7 Vol.
19%
22°C
$7 Vol.
23%
23°C
$108 Vol.
12%
24°C
$95 Vol.
21%
25°C
$32 Vol.
9%
26°C
$7 Vol.
16%
27°C ou plus
$32 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward cooler outcomes for Wuhan's highest temperature on April 2, with 17°C or below leading at 36.5% implied probability amid forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS showing a mean around 19°C but wide spread of 15–25°C due to uncertain timing of a weak cold front and associated cloud cover. Recent China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights below-normal early spring temperatures from lingering northerly airflow and showers, differentiating low-end buckets like 17–19°C from warmer ones, while historical early April highs average 19–21°C with high day-to-day variability. Key factors include soil moisture dampening daytime heating and jet stream positioning; updated model runs expected daily could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$327Date de fin
Apr 2, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward cooler outcomes for Wuhan's highest temperature on April 2, with 17°C or below leading at 36.5% implied probability amid forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS showing a mean around 19°C but wide spread of 15–25°C due to uncertain timing of a weak cold front and associated cloud cover. Recent China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights below-normal early spring temperatures from lingering northerly airflow and showers, differentiating low-end buckets like 17–19°C from warmer ones, while historical early April highs average 19–21°C with high day-to-day variability. Key factors include soil moisture dampening daytime heating and jet stream positioning; updated model runs expected daily could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$327Date de fin
Apr 2, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward cooler outcomes for Wuhan's highest temperature on April 2, with 17°C or below leading at 36.5% implied probability amid forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS showing a mean around 19°C but wide spread of 15–25°C due to uncertain timing of a weak cold front and associated cloud cover. Recent China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights below-normal early spring temperatures from lingering northerly airflow and showers, differentiating low-end buckets like 17–19°C from warmer ones, while historical early April highs average 19–21°C with high day-to-day variability. Key factors include soil moisture dampening daytime heating and jet stream positioning; updated model runs expected daily could shift odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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