Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward highs of 82-83°F (26.5% implied probability) for Houston on March 29, closely trailed by 80-81°F and 78-79°F, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating southerly winds ushering warm, moist Gulf air with highs peaking near 82°F amid partly cloudy skies. Recent 12Z GFS and ECMWF model runs show ensemble spreads of 3-5°F due to uncertainties in diurnal mixing and thin high cloud cover from an upstream disturbance, preventing decisive intensification beyond low 80s. Historical late-March averages hover in the upper 70s, but current ridging aloft favors above-normal warmth; traders eye this afternoon's 18Z updates for potential refinements before evening cool-down risks lower outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Houston le 29 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Houston le 29 mars ?
82-83°F 27%
80-81 °F 23%
78-79°F 22%
76-77 °F 14%
73°F ou moins
8%
74-75 °F
8%
76-77 °F
14%
78-79°F
22%
80-81 °F
23%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
14%
30-31°C
13%
88-89°F
9%
90-91°F
7%
92°F ou plus
6%
82-83°F 27%
80-81 °F 23%
78-79°F 22%
76-77 °F 14%
73°F ou moins
8%
74-75 °F
8%
76-77 °F
14%
78-79°F
22%
80-81 °F
23%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
14%
30-31°C
13%
88-89°F
9%
90-91°F
7%
92°F ou plus
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward highs of 82-83°F (26.5% implied probability) for Houston on March 29, closely trailed by 80-81°F and 78-79°F, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating southerly winds ushering warm, moist Gulf air with highs peaking near 82°F amid partly cloudy skies. Recent 12Z GFS and ECMWF model runs show ensemble spreads of 3-5°F due to uncertainties in diurnal mixing and thin high cloud cover from an upstream disturbance, preventing decisive intensification beyond low 80s. Historical late-March averages hover in the upper 70s, but current ridging aloft favors above-normal warmth; traders eye this afternoon's 18Z updates for potential refinements before evening cool-down risks lower outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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