Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's March 28 high, with model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF diverging slightly on peak afternoon heating under a building upper-level ridge and southerly winds. Leading odds favor 78-79°F (25.5%) due to recent guidance showing highs near 78°F amid light cloud cover and dew points in the 60s°F, promoting efficient boundary-layer mixing, while slightly cooler 74-77°F bins (43% combined) account for potential marine layer persistence or timing of diurnal warmup. Warmer 80°F+ outcomes (20.7%) hinge on stronger insolation if high pressure strengthens faster than expected. Historical March norms (~75°F) and yesterday's cooler front remnants add context, with final resolution hinging on real-time observations from Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport by midnight UTC. New hourly updates from NWS Houston/Galveston could shift odds rapidly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Houston on March 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
78-79°F 25%
76-77°F 22%
74-75°F 21%
80-81°F 17%
$10,014 Vol.
$10,014 Vol.
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
13%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
4%
86°F or higher
2%
78-79°F 25%
76-77°F 22%
74-75°F 21%
80-81°F 17%
$10,014 Vol.
$10,014 Vol.
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
13%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
4%
86°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Houston's March 28 high, with model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF diverging slightly on peak afternoon heating under a building upper-level ridge and southerly winds. Leading odds favor 78-79°F (25.5%) due to recent guidance showing highs near 78°F amid light cloud cover and dew points in the 60s°F, promoting efficient boundary-layer mixing, while slightly cooler 74-77°F bins (43% combined) account for potential marine layer persistence or timing of diurnal warmup. Warmer 80°F+ outcomes (20.7%) hinge on stronger insolation if high pressure strengthens faster than expected. Historical March norms (~75°F) and yesterday's cooler front remnants add context, with final resolution hinging on real-time observations from Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport by midnight UTC. New hourly updates from NWS Houston/Galveston could shift odds rapidly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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