Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities split evenly at 41% for 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher, signaling bimodal outcomes from divergent ensemble guidance. Central Weather Administration (CWA) outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS show spread due to variable cloud cover and moisture transport from recent continental cold fronts weakening over the Taiwan Strait, potentially capping highs under persistent overcast skies or allowing rapid warming under clear conditions amplified by Taipei Basin's heat-trapping topography. Typical April highs average 24-25°C, but spring frontal passages create this volatility; watch daily CWA updates and 00Z model runs for resolution shifts before the observation window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Taipei on April 2?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 2?
19°C or below 41%
29°C or higher 29%
26°C 23%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
19°C or below
41%
20°C
13%
21°C
13%
22°C
15%
23°C
9%
24°C
17%
25°C
21%
26°C
23%
27°C
21%
28°C
16%
29°C or higher
21%
19°C or below 41%
29°C or higher 29%
26°C 23%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
19°C or below
$7 Vol.
41%
20°C
$0 Vol.
13%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$10 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$0 Vol.
23%
27°C
$0 Vol.
21%
28°C
$0 Vol.
16%
29°C or higher
$15 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities split evenly at 41% for 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher, signaling bimodal outcomes from divergent ensemble guidance. Central Weather Administration (CWA) outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS show spread due to variable cloud cover and moisture transport from recent continental cold fronts weakening over the Taiwan Strait, potentially capping highs under persistent overcast skies or allowing rapid warming under clear conditions amplified by Taipei Basin's heat-trapping topography. Typical April highs average 24-25°C, but spring frontal passages create this volatility; watch daily CWA updates and 00Z model runs for resolution shifts before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$32Date de fin
Apr 2, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities split evenly at 41% for 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher, signaling bimodal outcomes from divergent ensemble guidance. Central Weather Administration (CWA) outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS show spread due to variable cloud cover and moisture transport from recent continental cold fronts weakening over the Taiwan Strait, potentially capping highs under persistent overcast skies or allowing rapid warming under clear conditions amplified by Taipei Basin's heat-trapping topography. Typical April highs average 24-25°C, but spring frontal passages create this volatility; watch daily CWA updates and 00Z model runs for resolution shifts before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32Date de fin
Apr 2, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities split evenly at 41% for 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher, signaling bimodal outcomes from divergent ensemble guidance. Central Weather Administration (CWA) outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS show spread due to variable cloud cover and moisture transport from recent continental cold fronts weakening over the Taiwan Strait, potentially capping highs under persistent overcast skies or allowing rapid warming under clear conditions amplified by Taipei Basin's heat-trapping topography. Typical April highs average 24-25°C, but spring frontal passages create this volatility; watch daily CWA updates and 00Z model runs for resolution shifts before the observation window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes