Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities tightly clustered and highest for 19°C or below (25.5%) and 29°C or higher (24.5%), diverging from the April climatological average high of 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport. At 2,240 meters elevation in a subtropical highland climate, daily maxima vary due to dry-season radiative heating under clear skies versus cooling from northerly frontal passages or increased cloud cover, as shown in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads projecting 20–28°C. No dominant weather system has emerged in the past 48 hours; upcoming Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and model refreshes by April 4–5 will clarify steering patterns and cloud trends influencing the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 6?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 6?
26°C 17%
20°C 16%
19°C or below 14%
23°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
19°C or below
14%
20°C
16%
21°C
10%
22°C
11%
23°C
14%
24°C
10%
25°C
10%
26°C
17%
27°C
13%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
13%
26°C 17%
20°C 16%
19°C or below 14%
23°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$0 Vol.
16%
21°C
$0 Vol.
10%
22°C
$0 Vol.
11%
23°C
$0 Vol.
14%
24°C
$0 Vol.
10%
25°C
$0 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
17%
27°C
$0 Vol.
13%
28°C
$0 Vol.
11%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities tightly clustered and highest for 19°C or below (25.5%) and 29°C or higher (24.5%), diverging from the April climatological average high of 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport. At 2,240 meters elevation in a subtropical highland climate, daily maxima vary due to dry-season radiative heating under clear skies versus cooling from northerly frontal passages or increased cloud cover, as shown in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads projecting 20–28°C. No dominant weather system has emerged in the past 48 hours; upcoming Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and model refreshes by April 4–5 will clarify steering patterns and cloud trends influencing the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:20 AM ET
Volume
$5Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:20 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities tightly clustered and highest for 19°C or below (25.5%) and 29°C or higher (24.5%), diverging from the April climatological average high of 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport. At 2,240 meters elevation in a subtropical highland climate, daily maxima vary due to dry-season radiative heating under clear skies versus cooling from northerly frontal passages or increased cloud cover, as shown in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads projecting 20–28°C. No dominant weather system has emerged in the past 48 hours; upcoming Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and model refreshes by April 4–5 will clarify steering patterns and cloud trends influencing the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:20 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 6, with implied probabilities tightly clustered and highest for 19°C or below (25.5%) and 29°C or higher (24.5%), diverging from the April climatological average high of 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport. At 2,240 meters elevation in a subtropical highland climate, daily maxima vary due to dry-season radiative heating under clear skies versus cooling from northerly frontal passages or increased cloud cover, as shown in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads projecting 20–28°C. No dominant weather system has emerged in the past 48 hours; upcoming Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and model refreshes by April 4–5 will clarify steering patterns and cloud trends influencing the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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