Latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projections for March-May 2026 indicate maximum temperatures up to 3°C above climatological norms in the Mexico City megalopolis, with 3-5 heat waves possible, fueling trader sentiment for 30°C or higher at 39% implied probability amid dry-season clear skies and high solar radiation. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's basin traps heat under weak winds and low humidity, enabling rapid daytime warming beyond typical April averages of 25-26°C—though recent records hit 34°C. Forecasts from AccuWeather and ensembles hover around 26°C (28% odds), reflecting model spread in high-pressure ridge strength during the La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition. Daily SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF runs through April 1 will sharpen resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 2?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 2?
26°C 28%
27°C 27%
24°C 19%
29°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
10%
22°C
14%
23°C
17%
24°C
19%
25°C
22%
26°C
28%
27°C
19%
28°C
18%
29°C
18%
30°C or higher
31%
26°C 28%
27°C 27%
24°C 19%
29°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
20°C or below
$273 Vol.
1%
21°C
$160 Vol.
10%
22°C
$5 Vol.
14%
23°C
$10 Vol.
17%
24°C
$10 Vol.
19%
25°C
$10 Vol.
22%
26°C
$19 Vol.
28%
27°C
$10 Vol.
19%
28°C
$5 Vol.
18%
29°C
$10 Vol.
18%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projections for March-May 2026 indicate maximum temperatures up to 3°C above climatological norms in the Mexico City megalopolis, with 3-5 heat waves possible, fueling trader sentiment for 30°C or higher at 39% implied probability amid dry-season clear skies and high solar radiation. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's basin traps heat under weak winds and low humidity, enabling rapid daytime warming beyond typical April averages of 25-26°C—though recent records hit 34°C. Forecasts from AccuWeather and ensembles hover around 26°C (28% odds), reflecting model spread in high-pressure ridge strength during the La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition. Daily SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF runs through April 1 will sharpen resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$532Date de fin
Apr 2, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projections for March-May 2026 indicate maximum temperatures up to 3°C above climatological norms in the Mexico City megalopolis, with 3-5 heat waves possible, fueling trader sentiment for 30°C or higher at 39% implied probability amid dry-season clear skies and high solar radiation. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's basin traps heat under weak winds and low humidity, enabling rapid daytime warming beyond typical April averages of 25-26°C—though recent records hit 34°C. Forecasts from AccuWeather and ensembles hover around 26°C (28% odds), reflecting model spread in high-pressure ridge strength during the La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition. Daily SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF runs through April 1 will sharpen resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$532Date de fin
Apr 2, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projections for March-May 2026 indicate maximum temperatures up to 3°C above climatological norms in the Mexico City megalopolis, with 3-5 heat waves possible, fueling trader sentiment for 30°C or higher at 39% implied probability amid dry-season clear skies and high solar radiation. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's basin traps heat under weak winds and low humidity, enabling rapid daytime warming beyond typical April averages of 25-26°C—though recent records hit 34°C. Forecasts from AccuWeather and ensembles hover around 26°C (28% odds), reflecting model spread in high-pressure ridge strength during the La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition. Daily SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF runs through April 1 will sharpen resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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