Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 14–16°C for Ankara's highest temperature on April 2, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance, projecting highs near 16°C amid a warming spring trend following late March's cool spell with 7°C maxima. High precipitation probability (around 68%) from an approaching front introduces uncertainty, as persistent cloud cover could cap daytime heating at 14–15°C by limiting solar insolation, while brief clears might push toward 17°C via stronger boundary-layer mixing. Key differentiators include frontal timing, soil moisture from recent rains suppressing temps below climatological early-April averages of 15–16°C, and upper-level ridge strength; watch 00z/12z model updates and MGM bulletins for shifts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on April 2?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 2?
16°C 25%
19°C 20%
15°C 19%
17°C 18%
10°C or below
5%
11°C
7%
12°C
7%
13°C
15%
14°C
15%
15°C
19%
16°C
25%
17°C
19%
18°C
16%
19°C
20%
20°C or higher
8%
16°C 25%
19°C 20%
15°C 19%
17°C 18%
10°C or below
5%
11°C
7%
12°C
7%
13°C
15%
14°C
15%
15°C
19%
16°C
25%
17°C
19%
18°C
16%
19°C
20%
20°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 14–16°C for Ankara's highest temperature on April 2, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance, projecting highs near 16°C amid a warming spring trend following late March's cool spell with 7°C maxima. High precipitation probability (around 68%) from an approaching front introduces uncertainty, as persistent cloud cover could cap daytime heating at 14–15°C by limiting solar insolation, while brief clears might push toward 17°C via stronger boundary-layer mixing. Key differentiators include frontal timing, soil moisture from recent rains suppressing temps below climatological early-April averages of 15–16°C, and upper-level ridge strength; watch 00z/12z model updates and MGM bulletins for shifts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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