Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 show mean maximum temperatures clustering around 12-14°C, with wide member spreads of several degrees reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of an upper-level ridge ushering milder Atlantic air. This drives trader consensus toward closely matched probabilities for 11-14°C outcomes, as northerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit upside potential beyond 14°C while recent cooling trends from early April frosts have moderated expectations below 11°C. Historical April highs average 12°C near Warsaw's Chopin Airport station, but current model guidance dominates; daily updates from these ensembles and Poland's IMGW could refine the outlook before resolution based on official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
12°C 33%
13°C 22%
14°C 20%
17°C or higher 10.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
8%
11°C
18%
12°C
28%
13°C
22%
14°C
20%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C or higher
11%
12°C 33%
13°C 22%
14°C 20%
17°C or higher 10.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
7°C or below
$220 Vol.
1%
8°C
$529 Vol.
1%
9°C
$53 Vol.
3%
10°C
$55 Vol.
8%
11°C
$17 Vol.
18%
12°C
$125 Vol.
28%
13°C
$53 Vol.
22%
14°C
$129 Vol.
20%
15°C
$34 Vol.
9%
16°C
$60 Vol.
9%
17°C or higher
$38 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 show mean maximum temperatures clustering around 12-14°C, with wide member spreads of several degrees reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of an upper-level ridge ushering milder Atlantic air. This drives trader consensus toward closely matched probabilities for 11-14°C outcomes, as northerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit upside potential beyond 14°C while recent cooling trends from early April frosts have moderated expectations below 11°C. Historical April highs average 12°C near Warsaw's Chopin Airport station, but current model guidance dominates; daily updates from these ensembles and Poland's IMGW could refine the outlook before resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$1,314Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 show mean maximum temperatures clustering around 12-14°C, with wide member spreads of several degrees reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of an upper-level ridge ushering milder Atlantic air. This drives trader consensus toward closely matched probabilities for 11-14°C outcomes, as northerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit upside potential beyond 14°C while recent cooling trends from early April frosts have moderated expectations below 11°C. Historical April highs average 12°C near Warsaw's Chopin Airport station, but current model guidance dominates; daily updates from these ensembles and Poland's IMGW could refine the outlook before resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,314Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 show mean maximum temperatures clustering around 12-14°C, with wide member spreads of several degrees reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of an upper-level ridge ushering milder Atlantic air. This drives trader consensus toward closely matched probabilities for 11-14°C outcomes, as northerly winds and partly cloudy skies limit upside potential beyond 14°C while recent cooling trends from early April frosts have moderated expectations below 11°C. Historical April highs average 12°C near Warsaw's Chopin Airport station, but current model guidance dominates; daily updates from these ensembles and Poland's IMGW could refine the outlook before resolution based on official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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