Latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook and global forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 clustering around 15-18°C, reflecting a warming trend after mid-week chills of 9-13°C under variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Trader sentiment mirrors this uncertainty with closely matched implied probabilities—18°C at 21.5%, 19°C at 18.5%, and 21°C at 17.0%—as mild southerly winds advect warmer air masses amid a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads on low-level cloudiness suppressing peaks below 18°C or sunny breaks enabling 20°C+ via enhanced solar insolation. New model runs expected today could refine diurnal maximum projections against the seasonal average of 13°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
18°C 21%
19°C 18%
21°C 18%
20°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
8%
17°C
16%
18°C
21%
19°C
18%
20°C
17%
21°C
18%
22°C or higher
16%
18°C 21%
19°C 18%
21°C 18%
20°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
12°C or below
$415 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$456 Vol.
2%
14°C
$157 Vol.
3%
15°C
$192 Vol.
4%
16°C
$116 Vol.
8%
17°C
$101 Vol.
16%
18°C
$219 Vol.
21%
19°C
$190 Vol.
18%
20°C
$165 Vol.
17%
21°C
$286 Vol.
18%
22°C or higher
$258 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook and global forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 clustering around 15-18°C, reflecting a warming trend after mid-week chills of 9-13°C under variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Trader sentiment mirrors this uncertainty with closely matched implied probabilities—18°C at 21.5%, 19°C at 18.5%, and 21°C at 17.0%—as mild southerly winds advect warmer air masses amid a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads on low-level cloudiness suppressing peaks below 18°C or sunny breaks enabling 20°C+ via enhanced solar insolation. New model runs expected today could refine diurnal maximum projections against the seasonal average of 13°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$2,557Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook and global forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 clustering around 15-18°C, reflecting a warming trend after mid-week chills of 9-13°C under variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Trader sentiment mirrors this uncertainty with closely matched implied probabilities—18°C at 21.5%, 19°C at 18.5%, and 21°C at 17.0%—as mild southerly winds advect warmer air masses amid a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads on low-level cloudiness suppressing peaks below 18°C or sunny breaks enabling 20°C+ via enhanced solar insolation. New model runs expected today could refine diurnal maximum projections against the seasonal average of 13°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,557Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook and global forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 clustering around 15-18°C, reflecting a warming trend after mid-week chills of 9-13°C under variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Trader sentiment mirrors this uncertainty with closely matched implied probabilities—18°C at 21.5%, 19°C at 18.5%, and 21°C at 17.0%—as mild southerly winds advect warmer air masses amid a stabilizing high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads on low-level cloudiness suppressing peaks below 18°C or sunny breaks enabling 20°C+ via enhanced solar insolation. New model runs expected today could refine diurnal maximum projections against the seasonal average of 13°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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