Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like the GFS and ECMWF, which project Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aloft. The narrow spread between 50-51°F (24%) and 52-53°F (22.5%) stems from uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, influenced by variable mid-level cloud cover from a weakening upstream low-pressure system and potential timing of a subtle frontal boundary. This sits slightly below the 54.8°F climatological normal for the date at O'Hare, amid a neutral ENSO phase favoring typical early spring variability. Watch for updated 00Z model runs overnight and NWS forecast tweaks tomorrow, which could sharpen resolution as diurnal max criteria hinge on 12-4 PM observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
50-51°F 24%
52-53°F 22%
54-55°F 14%
48-49°F 14%
$16,345 Vol.
$16,345 Vol.
5 avr. 2026
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
6%
46-47°F
7%
48-49°F
14%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
22%
54-55°F
14%
56°F or higher
13%
50-51°F 24%
52-53°F 22%
54-55°F 14%
48-49°F 14%
$16,345 Vol.
$16,345 Vol.
5 avr. 2026
37°F or below
$1,569 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$1,052 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$1,395 Vol.
1%
42-43°F
$1,319 Vol.
2%
44-45°F
$1,747 Vol.
6%
46-47°F
$930 Vol.
7%
48-49°F
$1,281 Vol.
14%
50-51°F
$1,519 Vol.
24%
52-53°F
$1,195 Vol.
22%
54-55°F
$1,713 Vol.
14%
56°F or higher
$2,626 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like the GFS and ECMWF, which project Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aloft. The narrow spread between 50-51°F (24%) and 52-53°F (22.5%) stems from uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, influenced by variable mid-level cloud cover from a weakening upstream low-pressure system and potential timing of a subtle frontal boundary. This sits slightly below the 54.8°F climatological normal for the date at O'Hare, amid a neutral ENSO phase favoring typical early spring variability. Watch for updated 00Z model runs overnight and NWS forecast tweaks tomorrow, which could sharpen resolution as diurnal max criteria hinge on 12-4 PM observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$16,345Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like the GFS and ECMWF, which project Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aloft. The narrow spread between 50-51°F (24%) and 52-53°F (22.5%) stems from uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, influenced by variable mid-level cloud cover from a weakening upstream low-pressure system and potential timing of a subtle frontal boundary. This sits slightly below the 54.8°F climatological normal for the date at O'Hare, amid a neutral ENSO phase favoring typical early spring variability. Watch for updated 00Z model runs overnight and NWS forecast tweaks tomorrow, which could sharpen resolution as diurnal max criteria hinge on 12-4 PM observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,345Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like the GFS and ECMWF, which project Chicago's high temperature on April 5 clustering around 50-53°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aloft. The narrow spread between 50-51°F (24%) and 52-53°F (22.5%) stems from uncertainty in peak afternoon heating, influenced by variable mid-level cloud cover from a weakening upstream low-pressure system and potential timing of a subtle frontal boundary. This sits slightly below the 54.8°F climatological normal for the date at O'Hare, amid a neutral ENSO phase favoring typical early spring variability. Watch for updated 00Z model runs overnight and NWS forecast tweaks tomorrow, which could sharpen resolution as diurnal max criteria hinge on 12-4 PM observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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