Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 49.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 26°C on April 5 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, driven by the latest AEMET forecast projecting a maximum of 27°C amid a stable high-pressure ridge over Iberia fostering subsidence, clear skies, and enhanced solar heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models tightly cluster around 24–27°C, reflecting this persistent anticyclonic pattern that has spurred a notable temperature rise—21.4°C recorded on April 3—well above the April seasonal average of 18–19°C. NE winds at 10 km/h and 0% precipitation risk support these elevated highs, though minor cloud development or model discrepancies could nudge outcomes toward 25°C or 27°C; real-time observations will refine resolution throughout the day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
26°C 51%
25°C 25%
27°C 19%
24°C 9%
$32,739 Vol.
$32,739 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
9%
25°C
25%
26°C
51%
27°C
19%
28°C
4%
29°C or higher
1%
26°C 51%
25°C 25%
27°C 19%
24°C 9%
$32,739 Vol.
$32,739 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
9%
25°C
25%
26°C
51%
27°C
19%
28°C
4%
29°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 49.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 26°C on April 5 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, driven by the latest AEMET forecast projecting a maximum of 27°C amid a stable high-pressure ridge over Iberia fostering subsidence, clear skies, and enhanced solar heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models tightly cluster around 24–27°C, reflecting this persistent anticyclonic pattern that has spurred a notable temperature rise—21.4°C recorded on April 3—well above the April seasonal average of 18–19°C. NE winds at 10 km/h and 0% precipitation risk support these elevated highs, though minor cloud development or model discrepancies could nudge outcomes toward 25°C or 27°C; real-time observations will refine resolution throughout the day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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