Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 28–30°C amid an approaching cold front—the first of autumn—forecast by INMET and Climatempo. Released within the last 24 hours, INMET's weekly outlook warns of heavy rains and coastal instability across Southeast Brazil from March 30 to April 6, likely capping highs through persistent cloud cover and showers that suppress daytime heating. Climatempo highlights Friday's risk of strong rain in Greater São Paulo, potentially dropping peaks to 25°C if frontal passage accelerates, versus 29–30°C if clearing occurs post-morning. Early April climatology averages 25–26°C highs per historical INMET data, but model ensembles diverge on exact timing and precipitation intensity; watch daily INMET updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
30°C 27%
28°C 24%
29°C 21%
27°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 avr. 2026
25°C or below
11%
26°C
20%
27°C
17%
28°C
24%
29°C
21%
30°C
27%
31°C
7%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 27%
28°C 24%
29°C 21%
27°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 avr. 2026
25°C or below
$405 Vol.
11%
26°C
$349 Vol.
20%
27°C
$314 Vol.
17%
28°C
$330 Vol.
24%
29°C
$371 Vol.
21%
30°C
$428 Vol.
27%
31°C
$310 Vol.
7%
32°C
$270 Vol.
4%
33°C
$361 Vol.
2%
34°C
$265 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$370 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 28–30°C amid an approaching cold front—the first of autumn—forecast by INMET and Climatempo. Released within the last 24 hours, INMET's weekly outlook warns of heavy rains and coastal instability across Southeast Brazil from March 30 to April 6, likely capping highs through persistent cloud cover and showers that suppress daytime heating. Climatempo highlights Friday's risk of strong rain in Greater São Paulo, potentially dropping peaks to 25°C if frontal passage accelerates, versus 29–30°C if clearing occurs post-morning. Early April climatology averages 25–26°C highs per historical INMET data, but model ensembles diverge on exact timing and precipitation intensity; watch daily INMET updates for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$3,772Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 28–30°C amid an approaching cold front—the first of autumn—forecast by INMET and Climatempo. Released within the last 24 hours, INMET's weekly outlook warns of heavy rains and coastal instability across Southeast Brazil from March 30 to April 6, likely capping highs through persistent cloud cover and showers that suppress daytime heating. Climatempo highlights Friday's risk of strong rain in Greater São Paulo, potentially dropping peaks to 25°C if frontal passage accelerates, versus 29–30°C if clearing occurs post-morning. Early April climatology averages 25–26°C highs per historical INMET data, but model ensembles diverge on exact timing and precipitation intensity; watch daily INMET updates for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,772Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities clustering around 28–30°C amid an approaching cold front—the first of autumn—forecast by INMET and Climatempo. Released within the last 24 hours, INMET's weekly outlook warns of heavy rains and coastal instability across Southeast Brazil from March 30 to April 6, likely capping highs through persistent cloud cover and showers that suppress daytime heating. Climatempo highlights Friday's risk of strong rain in Greater São Paulo, potentially dropping peaks to 25°C if frontal passage accelerates, versus 29–30°C if clearing occurs post-morning. Early April climatology averages 25–26°C highs per historical INMET data, but model ensembles diverge on exact timing and precipitation intensity; watch daily INMET updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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