Latest AEMET forecasts project a maximum temperature of 25°C for Madrid on April 4 under clear skies and light northerly winds at 20 km/h, with zero precipitation risk, driving trader consensus toward outcomes in the 23–25°C range where 24°C holds a 40.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects convergence in recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs clustering highs at 22–24°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, dry conditions, and warm advection—well above the early April climatological average of 18°C. Overnight model updates on April 3 refined prior spreads from 17–27°C, tightening uncertainty while highlighting potential for urban heat effects to nudge peaks higher; watch AEMET's final advisories and real-time station data for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on April 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?
24°C 40%
25°C 22%
23°C 21%
22°C 15%
$25,697 Vol.
$25,697 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
15%
23°C
21%
24°C
40%
25°C
22%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
2%
24°C 40%
25°C 22%
23°C 21%
22°C 15%
$25,697 Vol.
$25,697 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
17°C or below
$3,330 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,885 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,840 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,613 Vol.
1%
21°C
$2,145 Vol.
2%
22°C
$2,390 Vol.
15%
23°C
$2,422 Vol.
21%
24°C
$2,357 Vol.
40%
25°C
$2,411 Vol.
22%
26°C
$2,422 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$1,880 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts project a maximum temperature of 25°C for Madrid on April 4 under clear skies and light northerly winds at 20 km/h, with zero precipitation risk, driving trader consensus toward outcomes in the 23–25°C range where 24°C holds a 40.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects convergence in recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs clustering highs at 22–24°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, dry conditions, and warm advection—well above the early April climatological average of 18°C. Overnight model updates on April 3 refined prior spreads from 17–27°C, tightening uncertainty while highlighting potential for urban heat effects to nudge peaks higher; watch AEMET's final advisories and real-time station data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ET
Volume
$25,697Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts project a maximum temperature of 25°C for Madrid on April 4 under clear skies and light northerly winds at 20 km/h, with zero precipitation risk, driving trader consensus toward outcomes in the 23–25°C range where 24°C holds a 40.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects convergence in recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs clustering highs at 22–24°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, dry conditions, and warm advection—well above the early April climatological average of 18°C. Overnight model updates on April 3 refined prior spreads from 17–27°C, tightening uncertainty while highlighting potential for urban heat effects to nudge peaks higher; watch AEMET's final advisories and real-time station data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,697Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts project a maximum temperature of 25°C for Madrid on April 4 under clear skies and light northerly winds at 20 km/h, with zero precipitation risk, driving trader consensus toward outcomes in the 23–25°C range where 24°C holds a 40.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects convergence in recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs clustering highs at 22–24°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, dry conditions, and warm advection—well above the early April climatological average of 18°C. Overnight model updates on April 3 refined prior spreads from 17–27°C, tightening uncertainty while highlighting potential for urban heat effects to nudge peaks higher; watch AEMET's final advisories and real-time station data for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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