Latest AEMET forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show consensus for a maximum temperature around 20-22°C in Madrid on April 3, fueling trader sentiment with 21°C at 28% implied probability and 22°C close behind at 25%. Northerly winds at 15-30 km/h, clear skies, and zero precipitation chances support daytime heating under mild spring conditions, with highs tempered by continental air mass and urban heat island effects at the Retiro station measurement site. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in peak afternoon boundary layer mixing and minor cloud variations, keeping lower outcomes like 20°C viable at 16%. Daily model updates through April 2 will refine resolution odds as observations firm up.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
21°C 28%
22°C 25%
23°C 17%
20°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 avr. 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
5%
19°C
12%
20°C
15%
21°C
28%
22°C
25%
23°C
17%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
3%
21°C 28%
22°C 25%
23°C 17%
20°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 avr. 2026
16°C or below
$652 Vol.
2%
17°C
$222 Vol.
2%
18°C
$82 Vol.
5%
19°C
$84 Vol.
12%
20°C
$102 Vol.
15%
21°C
$118 Vol.
28%
22°C
$85 Vol.
25%
23°C
$94 Vol.
17%
24°C
$87 Vol.
5%
25°C
$89 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$117 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show consensus for a maximum temperature around 20-22°C in Madrid on April 3, fueling trader sentiment with 21°C at 28% implied probability and 22°C close behind at 25%. Northerly winds at 15-30 km/h, clear skies, and zero precipitation chances support daytime heating under mild spring conditions, with highs tempered by continental air mass and urban heat island effects at the Retiro station measurement site. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in peak afternoon boundary layer mixing and minor cloud variations, keeping lower outcomes like 20°C viable at 16%. Daily model updates through April 2 will refine resolution odds as observations firm up.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,733Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show consensus for a maximum temperature around 20-22°C in Madrid on April 3, fueling trader sentiment with 21°C at 28% implied probability and 22°C close behind at 25%. Northerly winds at 15-30 km/h, clear skies, and zero precipitation chances support daytime heating under mild spring conditions, with highs tempered by continental air mass and urban heat island effects at the Retiro station measurement site. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in peak afternoon boundary layer mixing and minor cloud variations, keeping lower outcomes like 20°C viable at 16%. Daily model updates through April 2 will refine resolution odds as observations firm up.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,733Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show consensus for a maximum temperature around 20-22°C in Madrid on April 3, fueling trader sentiment with 21°C at 28% implied probability and 22°C close behind at 25%. Northerly winds at 15-30 km/h, clear skies, and zero precipitation chances support daytime heating under mild spring conditions, with highs tempered by continental air mass and urban heat island effects at the Retiro station measurement site. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in peak afternoon boundary layer mixing and minor cloud variations, keeping lower outcomes like 20°C viable at 16%. Daily model updates through April 2 will refine resolution odds as observations firm up.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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