Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a highest temperature of 19-20°C in Madrid on April 1, reflecting a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that promotes clear skies and mild continental air advection from the south. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies—GFS runs favor warmer peaks near 21°C with stronger subsidence inhibiting clouds, while ECMWF ensembles tilt cooler at 18°C due to potential low-level stratus persistence—against an early-April climatological baseline of 17-18°C maxima. AEMET's spring 2026 outlook signals above-normal warmth amid shifting ENSO patterns, amplifying upside risk. New 12z model cycles and AEMET advisories tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution amid this tight probabilistic spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
19°C 28%
20°C 26%
18°C 25%
21°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
14°C or below
7%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
14%
18°C
25%
19°C
28%
20°C
26%
21°C
18%
22°C
9%
23°C
9%
24°C or higher
9%
19°C 28%
20°C 26%
18°C 25%
21°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
14°C or below
$115 Vol.
7%
15°C
$71 Vol.
9%
16°C
$2 Vol.
9%
17°C
$12 Vol.
14%
18°C
$6 Vol.
25%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$4 Vol.
18%
22°C
$6 Vol.
9%
23°C
$8 Vol.
9%
24°C or higher
$10 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a highest temperature of 19-20°C in Madrid on April 1, reflecting a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that promotes clear skies and mild continental air advection from the south. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies—GFS runs favor warmer peaks near 21°C with stronger subsidence inhibiting clouds, while ECMWF ensembles tilt cooler at 18°C due to potential low-level stratus persistence—against an early-April climatological baseline of 17-18°C maxima. AEMET's spring 2026 outlook signals above-normal warmth amid shifting ENSO patterns, amplifying upside risk. New 12z model cycles and AEMET advisories tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution amid this tight probabilistic spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Volume
$234Date de fin
Apr 1, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a highest temperature of 19-20°C in Madrid on April 1, reflecting a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that promotes clear skies and mild continental air advection from the south. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies—GFS runs favor warmer peaks near 21°C with stronger subsidence inhibiting clouds, while ECMWF ensembles tilt cooler at 18°C due to potential low-level stratus persistence—against an early-April climatological baseline of 17-18°C maxima. AEMET's spring 2026 outlook signals above-normal warmth amid shifting ENSO patterns, amplifying upside risk. New 12z model cycles and AEMET advisories tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution amid this tight probabilistic spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$234Date de fin
Apr 1, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a highest temperature of 19-20°C in Madrid on April 1, reflecting a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that promotes clear skies and mild continental air advection from the south. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies—GFS runs favor warmer peaks near 21°C with stronger subsidence inhibiting clouds, while ECMWF ensembles tilt cooler at 18°C due to potential low-level stratus persistence—against an early-April climatological baseline of 17-18°C maxima. AEMET's spring 2026 outlook signals above-normal warmth amid shifting ENSO patterns, amplifying upside risk. New 12z model cycles and AEMET advisories tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution amid this tight probabilistic spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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