Market icon

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

78°F or higher 35%

59°F or below 31%

74-75°F 25%

76-77°F 24%

Polymarket
NEW

78°F or higher 35%

59°F or below 31%

74-75°F 25%

76-77°F 24%

Polymarket
NEW

59°F or below

$5 Vol.

31%

60-61°F

$121 Vol.

7%

62-63°F

$0 Vol.

9%

64-65°F

$0 Vol.

16%

66-67°F

$0 Vol.

16%

68-69°F

$0 Vol.

16%

70-71°F

$0 Vol.

17%

72-73°F

$0 Vol.

17%

74-75°F

$0 Vol.

25%

76-77°F

$0 Vol.

24%

78°F or higher

$0 Vol.

35%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds split between a warm outlier at 78°F or higher (37.5%) and suppressed highs of 59°F or below (33.0%), diverging from April climatological norms of 64–66°F highs. This bimodal sentiment stems from recent March 2026 record warmth—peaking at 90°F—driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and offshore winds that erode the marine layer; however, ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF show divergence, with some members projecting ridge breakdown and strengthened onshore flow trapping cool coastal stratus, capping temperatures. Key differentiators include ridge amplitude at 500 mb and sea breeze intensity, with daily model updates through April 1 expected to clarify the outlook.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds split between a warm outlier at 78°F or higher (37.5%) and suppressed highs of 59°F or below (33.0%), diverging from April climatological norms of 64–66°F highs. This bimodal sentiment stems from recent March 2026 record warmth—peaking at 90°F—driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and offshore winds that erode the marine layer; however, ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF show divergence, with some members projecting ridge breakdown and strengthened onshore flow trapping cool coastal stratus, capping temperatures. Key differentiators include ridge amplitude at 500 mb and sea breeze intensity, with daily model updates through April 1 expected to clarify the outlook.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds split between a warm outlier at 78°F or higher (37.5%) and suppressed highs of 59°F or below (33.0%), diverging from April climatological norms of 64–66°F highs. This bimodal sentiment stems from recent March 2026 record warmth—peaking at 90°F—driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and offshore winds that erode the marine layer; however, ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF show divergence, with some members projecting ridge breakdown and strengthened onshore flow trapping cool coastal stratus, capping temperatures. Key differentiators include ridge amplitude at 500 mb and sea breeze intensity, with daily model updates through April 1 expected to clarify the outlook.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds split between a warm outlier at 78°F or higher (37.5%) and suppressed highs of 59°F or below (33.0%), diverging from April climatological norms of 64–66°F highs. This bimodal sentiment stems from recent March 2026 record warmth—peaking at 90°F—driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and offshore winds that erode the marine layer; however, ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF show divergence, with some members projecting ridge breakdown and strengthened onshore flow trapping cool coastal stratus, capping temperatures. Key differentiators include ridge amplitude at 500 mb and sea breeze intensity, with daily model updates through April 1 expected to clarify the outlook.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 78°F or higher » à 35%, suivi de « 59°F or below » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 35¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 35% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 29, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4? » est « 78°F or higher » à 35%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 35% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 59°F or below » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.