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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 1?

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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 1?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

60-61°F 37%

62-63°F 30%

64-65°F 23%

66-67°F 13%

Polymarket
NEW

60-61°F 37%

62-63°F 30%

64-65°F 23%

66-67°F 13%

Polymarket
NEW

53°F or below

$404 Vol.

1%

54-55°F

$14 Vol.

4%

56-57°F

$6 Vol.

10%

58-59°F

$4 Vol.

11%

60-61°F

$33 Vol.

32%

62-63°F

$5 Vol.

30%

64-65°F

$4 Vol.

23%

66-67°F

$15 Vol.

13%

68-69°F

$6 Vol.

11%

70-71°F

$10 Vol.

9%

72°F or higher

$144 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 60-65°F for San Francisco on April 1, with 62-63°F and 60-61°F nearly tied at around 29% implied probabilities each, driven by National Weather Service forecasts highlighting a persistent shallow marine layer—cool, moist Pacific air capped by a temperature inversion—that has redeveloped after mid-March's rare heat wave. This stratus deck typically suppresses coastal peaks to the low-to-mid 60s, aligning with historical April 1 averages near 63°F and recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing limited inland heat advection. Differentiating factors include morning fog burn-off timing: early clearing could boost odds for 64-67°F via solar heating, while prolonged onshore flow favors cooler outcomes; new NWS updates and overnight model refreshes expected within 24 hours may sharpen this uncertainty under transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 60-65°F for San Francisco on April 1, with 62-63°F and 60-61°F nearly tied at around 29% implied probabilities each, driven by National Weather Service forecasts highlighting a persistent shallow marine layer—cool, moist Pacific air capped by a temperature inversion—that has redeveloped after mid-March's rare heat wave. This stratus deck typically suppresses coastal peaks to the low-to-mid 60s, aligning with historical April 1 averages near 63°F and recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing limited inland heat advection. Differentiating factors include morning fog burn-off timing: early clearing could boost odds for 64-67°F via solar heating, while prolonged onshore flow favors cooler outcomes; new NWS updates and overnight model refreshes expected within 24 hours may sharpen this uncertainty under transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 60-65°F for San Francisco on April 1, with 62-63°F and 60-61°F nearly tied at around 29% implied probabilities each, driven by National Weather Service forecasts highlighting a persistent shallow marine layer—cool, moist Pacific air capped by a temperature inversion—that has redeveloped after mid-March's rare heat wave. This stratus deck typically suppresses coastal peaks to the low-to-mid 60s, aligning with historical April 1 averages near 63°F and recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing limited inland heat advection. Differentiating factors include morning fog burn-off timing: early clearing could boost odds for 64-67°F via solar heating, while prolonged onshore flow favors cooler outcomes; new NWS updates and overnight model refreshes expected within 24 hours may sharpen this uncertainty under transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 60-65°F for San Francisco on April 1, with 62-63°F and 60-61°F nearly tied at around 29% implied probabilities each, driven by National Weather Service forecasts highlighting a persistent shallow marine layer—cool, moist Pacific air capped by a temperature inversion—that has redeveloped after mid-March's rare heat wave. This stratus deck typically suppresses coastal peaks to the low-to-mid 60s, aligning with historical April 1 averages near 63°F and recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing limited inland heat advection. Differentiating factors include morning fog burn-off timing: early clearing could boost odds for 64-67°F via solar heating, while prolonged onshore flow favors cooler outcomes; new NWS updates and overnight model refreshes expected within 24 hours may sharpen this uncertainty under transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 1? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 60-61°F » à 32%, suivi de « 62-63°F » à 30%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 32¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 32% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 1? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 29, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 1? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 1? » est « 60-61°F » à 32%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 32% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 62-63°F » à 30%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 1? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.