Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Tokyo high of 17°C at 30.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 16°C and 18°C at 23.5% each, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid spring frontal variability. The Japan Meteorological Agency's April 5 update projects 22°C partly cloudy skies on April 8 following showers and cooling on April 7 (20°C high), while international models like those aggregated on timeanddate.com indicate 18°C sunny conditions under high pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include post-frontal air mass recovery rates, residual cloud cover persistence, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect boosting afternoon peaks by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight 2–4°C divergence, with next JMA and ECMWF updates by April 6 likely to sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 8?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 8?
17°C 31%
16°C 24%
18°C 24%
19°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
6%
15°C
13%
16°C
24%
17°C
31%
18°C
24%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
9%
17°C 31%
16°C 24%
18°C 24%
19°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
10°C or below
$205 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$366 Vol.
1%
12°C
$304 Vol.
1%
13°C
$618 Vol.
2%
14°C
$61 Vol.
6%
15°C
$31 Vol.
13%
16°C
$131 Vol.
24%
17°C
$32 Vol.
31%
18°C
$41 Vol.
24%
19°C
$39 Vol.
19%
20°C or higher
$170 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Tokyo high of 17°C at 30.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 16°C and 18°C at 23.5% each, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid spring frontal variability. The Japan Meteorological Agency's April 5 update projects 22°C partly cloudy skies on April 8 following showers and cooling on April 7 (20°C high), while international models like those aggregated on timeanddate.com indicate 18°C sunny conditions under high pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include post-frontal air mass recovery rates, residual cloud cover persistence, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect boosting afternoon peaks by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight 2–4°C divergence, with next JMA and ECMWF updates by April 6 likely to sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$1,998Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Tokyo high of 17°C at 30.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 16°C and 18°C at 23.5% each, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid spring frontal variability. The Japan Meteorological Agency's April 5 update projects 22°C partly cloudy skies on April 8 following showers and cooling on April 7 (20°C high), while international models like those aggregated on timeanddate.com indicate 18°C sunny conditions under high pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include post-frontal air mass recovery rates, residual cloud cover persistence, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect boosting afternoon peaks by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight 2–4°C divergence, with next JMA and ECMWF updates by April 6 likely to sharpen odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,998Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Tokyo high of 17°C at 30.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 16°C and 18°C at 23.5% each, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid spring frontal variability. The Japan Meteorological Agency's April 5 update projects 22°C partly cloudy skies on April 8 following showers and cooling on April 7 (20°C high), while international models like those aggregated on timeanddate.com indicate 18°C sunny conditions under high pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include post-frontal air mass recovery rates, residual cloud cover persistence, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect boosting afternoon peaks by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads highlight 2–4°C divergence, with next JMA and ECMWF updates by April 6 likely to sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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