Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered between 20–30°C due to divergent model outputs amid volatile early spring conditions. Recent observations show highs reaching 28°C on April 5, but global ensembles like those informing AccuWeather predict a midweek cool-down to around 18°C before a potential rebound to 30°C under southerly winds and reduced cloud cover, while China Meteorological Administration-aligned averages for early April hover near 19°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary positioning, urban heat island amplification, and variable solar insolation; daily GFS and ECMWF updates through April 8 will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 9?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 9?
25°C 22%
26°C 20%
27°C 20%
24°C 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 avr. 2026
20°C or below
13%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
20%
25°C
22%
26°C
20%
27°C
20%
28°C
18%
29°C
18%
30°C or higher
2%
25°C 22%
26°C 20%
27°C 20%
24°C 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 avr. 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
13%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
17%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
20%
27°C
$0 Vol.
20%
28°C
$10 Vol.
18%
29°C
$10 Vol.
18%
30°C or higher
$33 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered between 20–30°C due to divergent model outputs amid volatile early spring conditions. Recent observations show highs reaching 28°C on April 5, but global ensembles like those informing AccuWeather predict a midweek cool-down to around 18°C before a potential rebound to 30°C under southerly winds and reduced cloud cover, while China Meteorological Administration-aligned averages for early April hover near 19°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary positioning, urban heat island amplification, and variable solar insolation; daily GFS and ECMWF updates through April 8 will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$53Date de fin
9 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered between 20–30°C due to divergent model outputs amid volatile early spring conditions. Recent observations show highs reaching 28°C on April 5, but global ensembles like those informing AccuWeather predict a midweek cool-down to around 18°C before a potential rebound to 30°C under southerly winds and reduced cloud cover, while China Meteorological Administration-aligned averages for early April hover near 19°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary positioning, urban heat island amplification, and variable solar insolation; daily GFS and ECMWF updates through April 8 will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$53Date de fin
9 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 9, with implied probabilities tightly clustered between 20–30°C due to divergent model outputs amid volatile early spring conditions. Recent observations show highs reaching 28°C on April 5, but global ensembles like those informing AccuWeather predict a midweek cool-down to around 18°C before a potential rebound to 30°C under southerly winds and reduced cloud cover, while China Meteorological Administration-aligned averages for early April hover near 19°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary positioning, urban heat island amplification, and variable solar insolation; daily GFS and ECMWF updates through April 8 will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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