Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global models like ECMWF around a 21-22°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 5, with 22°C edging ahead at 29.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from a lingering frontal system—partial clearing could push toward 23°C or higher (19.5%), while persistent overcast or light rain favors 21°C (25.5%)—along with southerly winds enhancing warm air advection versus cooler northerlies. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but recent two-week outlooks show above-normal anomalies. JMA updates expected April 4 could refine model consensus on solar insolation and boundary layer mixing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 5 avril ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 5 avril ?
22°C 29%
21°C 26%
23°C ou plus 20%
20°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
13°C ou moins
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
9%
20°C
18%
21°C
26%
22°C
29%
23°C ou plus
20%
22°C 29%
21°C 26%
23°C ou plus 20%
20°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
13°C ou moins
$634 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$634 Vol.
1%
15°C
$592 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$628 Vol.
1%
17°C
$509 Vol.
3%
18°C
$372 Vol.
5%
19°C
$315 Vol.
9%
20°C
$582 Vol.
18%
21°C
$398 Vol.
26%
22°C
$442 Vol.
29%
23°C ou plus
$809 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global models like ECMWF around a 21-22°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 5, with 22°C edging ahead at 29.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from a lingering frontal system—partial clearing could push toward 23°C or higher (19.5%), while persistent overcast or light rain favors 21°C (25.5%)—along with southerly winds enhancing warm air advection versus cooler northerlies. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but recent two-week outlooks show above-normal anomalies. JMA updates expected April 4 could refine model consensus on solar insolation and boundary layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$5,914Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global models like ECMWF around a 21-22°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 5, with 22°C edging ahead at 29.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from a lingering frontal system—partial clearing could push toward 23°C or higher (19.5%), while persistent overcast or light rain favors 21°C (25.5%)—along with southerly winds enhancing warm air advection versus cooler northerlies. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but recent two-week outlooks show above-normal anomalies. JMA updates expected April 4 could refine model consensus on solar insolation and boundary layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,914Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global models like ECMWF around a 21-22°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on April 5, with 22°C edging ahead at 29.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from a lingering frontal system—partial clearing could push toward 23°C or higher (19.5%), while persistent overcast or light rain favors 21°C (25.5%)—along with southerly winds enhancing warm air advection versus cooler northerlies. Early April climatology averages 18°C highs, but recent two-week outlooks show above-normal anomalies. JMA updates expected April 4 could refine model consensus on solar insolation and boundary layer mixing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes