Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to a high of 84°F or higher in Dallas on April 2, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF that project highs in the low to mid-80s amid an upper-level ridge promoting above-normal temperatures. NOAA's spring outlook supports this positioning with expectations of persistent warmth across Texas, following recent highs near 85°F on March 30 that underscore the season's climatological tendency for early April peaks exceeding the 76°F normal. Incoming rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late March 31 through Easter weekend introduce uncertainty, potentially capping intensities, while daily model updates will refine landfall probabilities for peak heat. Historical analogs show frequent 80°F+ days this time of year under similar high-pressure setups.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Dallas on April 2?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 2?
84°F or higher 37%
80-81°F 22%
82-83°F 21%
78-79°F 13%
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
24%
84°F or higher
37%
84°F or higher 37%
80-81°F 22%
82-83°F 21%
78-79°F 13%
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
24%
84°F or higher
37%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to a high of 84°F or higher in Dallas on April 2, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF that project highs in the low to mid-80s amid an upper-level ridge promoting above-normal temperatures. NOAA's spring outlook supports this positioning with expectations of persistent warmth across Texas, following recent highs near 85°F on March 30 that underscore the season's climatological tendency for early April peaks exceeding the 76°F normal. Incoming rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late March 31 through Easter weekend introduce uncertainty, potentially capping intensities, while daily model updates will refine landfall probabilities for peak heat. Historical analogs show frequent 80°F+ days this time of year under similar high-pressure setups.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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