Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects KNMI's April 2 forecast guidance projecting Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 4 around 15°C under a developing high-pressure ridge delivering sunny spells and above-average warmth for early April, where historical highs typically range 11-13°C. The tight clustering at 14-16°C (25.5% each) stems from ensemble model agreement from ECMWF and HARMONIE on peak afternoon heating near 15°C, tempered by uncertainties in transient cloud cover and light southerly winds that could cap or boost maxima by 1-2°C. Lower odds for extremes underscore low risk of prolonged overcast or heat advection. Watch for updated 12Z model runs today and Schiphol Airport observations resolving the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Amsterdam on April 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 4?
15°C 26%
14°C 26%
16°C 26%
13°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 avr. 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
12%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
12%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
2%
15°C 26%
14°C 26%
16°C 26%
13°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 avr. 2026
9°C or below
$209 Vol.
1%
10°C
$40 Vol.
2%
11°C
$15 Vol.
2%
12°C
$0 Vol.
3%
13°C
$0 Vol.
12%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
12%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C or higher
$102 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects KNMI's April 2 forecast guidance projecting Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 4 around 15°C under a developing high-pressure ridge delivering sunny spells and above-average warmth for early April, where historical highs typically range 11-13°C. The tight clustering at 14-16°C (25.5% each) stems from ensemble model agreement from ECMWF and HARMONIE on peak afternoon heating near 15°C, tempered by uncertainties in transient cloud cover and light southerly winds that could cap or boost maxima by 1-2°C. Lower odds for extremes underscore low risk of prolonged overcast or heat advection. Watch for updated 12Z model runs today and Schiphol Airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$366Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 8:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects KNMI's April 2 forecast guidance projecting Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 4 around 15°C under a developing high-pressure ridge delivering sunny spells and above-average warmth for early April, where historical highs typically range 11-13°C. The tight clustering at 14-16°C (25.5% each) stems from ensemble model agreement from ECMWF and HARMONIE on peak afternoon heating near 15°C, tempered by uncertainties in transient cloud cover and light southerly winds that could cap or boost maxima by 1-2°C. Lower odds for extremes underscore low risk of prolonged overcast or heat advection. Watch for updated 12Z model runs today and Schiphol Airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$366Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 8:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects KNMI's April 2 forecast guidance projecting Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 4 around 15°C under a developing high-pressure ridge delivering sunny spells and above-average warmth for early April, where historical highs typically range 11-13°C. The tight clustering at 14-16°C (25.5% each) stems from ensemble model agreement from ECMWF and HARMONIE on peak afternoon heating near 15°C, tempered by uncertainties in transient cloud cover and light southerly winds that could cap or boost maxima by 1-2°C. Lower odds for extremes underscore low risk of prolonged overcast or heat advection. Watch for updated 12Z model runs today and Schiphol Airport observations resolving the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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