Japan Meteorological Agency's March 30 forecast projects a 19°C high for Tokyo on April 4 amid cloudy skies and 60% precipitation probability, anchoring trader consensus with implied odds clustered tightly at 17–20°C across outcomes. This spread captures inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather models, where mild southwesterly flows from the Pacific deliver warmth, but passing fronts risk capping peaks via increased cloud cover and reduced insolation. Historical early-April highs average 18°C, bolstered by 2026's warmer-than-normal March promoting early cherry blossoms and sustained mild patterns. Differentiation hinges on frontal timing: clearer intervals favor 20°C+, persistent overcast suits 17°C; daily JMA updates will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
19°C 31.9%
17°C 25%
18°C 20%
21°C or higher 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
12%
13°C
11%
14°C
14%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
25%
18°C
20%
19°C
25%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
19%
19°C 31.9%
17°C 25%
18°C 20%
21°C or higher 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
11°C or below
$419 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
12%
13°C
$20 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$0 Vol.
17%
16°C
$0 Vol.
17%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$72 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
18%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's March 30 forecast projects a 19°C high for Tokyo on April 4 amid cloudy skies and 60% precipitation probability, anchoring trader consensus with implied odds clustered tightly at 17–20°C across outcomes. This spread captures inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather models, where mild southwesterly flows from the Pacific deliver warmth, but passing fronts risk capping peaks via increased cloud cover and reduced insolation. Historical early-April highs average 18°C, bolstered by 2026's warmer-than-normal March promoting early cherry blossoms and sustained mild patterns. Differentiation hinges on frontal timing: clearer intervals favor 20°C+, persistent overcast suits 17°C; daily JMA updates will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$504Date de fin
Apr 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's March 30 forecast projects a 19°C high for Tokyo on April 4 amid cloudy skies and 60% precipitation probability, anchoring trader consensus with implied odds clustered tightly at 17–20°C across outcomes. This spread captures inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather models, where mild southwesterly flows from the Pacific deliver warmth, but passing fronts risk capping peaks via increased cloud cover and reduced insolation. Historical early-April highs average 18°C, bolstered by 2026's warmer-than-normal March promoting early cherry blossoms and sustained mild patterns. Differentiation hinges on frontal timing: clearer intervals favor 20°C+, persistent overcast suits 17°C; daily JMA updates will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$504Date de fin
Apr 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency's March 30 forecast projects a 19°C high for Tokyo on April 4 amid cloudy skies and 60% precipitation probability, anchoring trader consensus with implied odds clustered tightly at 17–20°C across outcomes. This spread captures inherent short-term uncertainty in spring weather models, where mild southwesterly flows from the Pacific deliver warmth, but passing fronts risk capping peaks via increased cloud cover and reduced insolation. Historical early-April highs average 18°C, bolstered by 2026's warmer-than-normal March promoting early cherry blossoms and sustained mild patterns. Differentiation hinges on frontal timing: clearer intervals favor 20°C+, persistent overcast suits 17°C; daily JMA updates will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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